Individual Gurus

A reader asked: “Why not have Ned Davis Research or Lowry’s Research in your ranking?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “I have heard about Bert Dohmen’s research. Can you please shed any light on him and/or his research?” Keep Reading

Several readers have asked about VectorVest, such as: “Have you evaluated the VectorVest trading program?” Keep Reading

A reader noted and asked:

“I’m on an email list of many gurus these days, but the claims that Mark Skousen makes are incredible — so ‘wild’ that I’m wondering if they might actually be true?! He promises to turn $10,000 into $442,000 in seven months.”

While there are implications (such as “Every $5,000 invested could have turned into $60,000 in a just a few weeks.”), there is not enough information at MarkSkousen.com to assess realistic performance of his advice and recommendations. Some credibility checks include: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Why is Dan Murphy not on your graded list [of gurus]?. His web site, Financial Picks, touts a high percent accuracy and am curious if it is close to that at all.” Keep Reading

Alan M. Newman, Editor of Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, wrote on 8/3/09: Keep Reading

A reader requested a test of the stock market forecasts/targets at the end of the archived “Pictures of a Stock Market Mania” articles at Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, which promises ” powerful commentary and unique perspectives that cannot be found anywhere else.” Using the forecasts for the S&P 500 index from the 40 archived articles spanning 2/24/01 through 3/15/09, along with contemporaneous actual S&P 500 index data, we find that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering conservative and aggressive investment strategies in prosperous times.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Don Hays since late 2000, shortly after he established his own investment advisory firm. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly from two sources: (1) first from MarketWatch columns as far back as early 2004; and, as subsequently suggested by reader David Zaitzeff, (2) from TheStreet.com columns covering mostly the period 2001-2004. Don Hays is president of Hays Advisory, LLC, which is “devoted to providing stock market and economic analysis, while giving you sector and stock research to help both the individual and institutional investor make decisions.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader requested a review of the equity options trading advisory service offered as the “Options Hotline” via Agora Financial LLC. The “Options Hotline,” edited by Steve Sarnoff, presents to visitors a list of short-term “trades” with triple-digit gains and tells them: “If you are looking to make double- and triple-digit gains in a matter of months, weeks or even just days, you’ve come to the right place. Options are the best-kept secret on Wall Street, and mastering them can reap fantastic gains. Options Hotline can help you… Each week, editor Steve Sarnoff, painstakingly analyzes the markets to uncover the very best options with high gain potential.” Does this representation convey a realistic expectation? Does the “Options Hotline” offer value to subscribers? Using the self-reported recommended buys from the “Options Hotline” for 2005-2006 and for 2007-2008 and daily price data from Yahoo!Finance for the underlying securities from the day after recommendation dates through specified option expiration dates, we conclude that: Keep Reading