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Individual Gurus

These blog entries consist of reviews of the performance of individual gurus based on information freely available on the web.

Tobin Smith’s Fearless Forecasts

We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of products, companies and industries well ahead of other available sources.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We find that: Keep Reading

Price Headley’s Trends

We evaluate here the weekly market commentary of Price Headley, available via now-inaccessible archives for May 2000 through December 2010, and since presented as a “Weekly Market Outlook” via BigTrends.com. Price Headley, “was inducted into the Traders’ Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends.” He is “a member of the Market Technicians Association. He is also a chartered financial analyst (CFA) charterholder and a chartered market technician (CMT) charterholder.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Gary D. Halbert Forecasts and Trends

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts from the monthly commentaries of Gary D. Halbert, available since January 2002. Because these commentaries stop with May 2007, we include also market-oriented editions of his weekly commentaries since June 2007. Gary Halbert is President and CEO of ProFutures, Inc., which has a “mission of matching client needs with suitable professional money managers.” His main tool for analyzing financial markets for much of the period reviewed was research/opinion from BCA Research, which he then described as “the most accurate source for major economic trends that I have read over the last 25 years.” However, he no longer cites their forecasts. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Martin Goldberg: Financial Sense?

A reader suggested that we evaluate the market commentary of Martin Goldberg, as available via the Financial Sense archive for September 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Martin Goldberg “is a Chartered Market Technician who manages money privately.” He sometimes notes that “when you identify a hot guru, it pays to follow his advice.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Carl Futia Telling

As suggested by a reader, we expand here an evaluation of overall stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Carl Futia, available since April 2005. The main tools that Carl Futia uses to analyze financial markets are the theory of contrary opinion, his box theory and the work of George Lindsay on ‘repeating time intervals’. Patterns are the common theme uniting his interests in mathematics, markets and economics. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Bill Fleckenstein: Apocalypse Soon

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary in the “Contrarian Chronicles” at MSN Money since August 2002 (the earliest we can find). Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Ken Fisher Chronicles

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to add value, “active management…must identify information not widely known or interpret widely known information differently and correctly from other market participants.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

How About Puru Saxena?

A reader asked: “Do you have any data on Puru Saxena’s performance?” Keep Reading

Doug Fabian: Still Successfully Investing?

A reader suggested that add Doug Fabian to Guru Grades. According to his web site, Doug Fabian “is the editor of Successful Investing, High Monthly Income and ETF Trader, and is host of the syndicated radio show, ‘Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies’. Taking over the reigns from his dad, Dick Fabian, back in 1992, Doug has continued to uphold the reputation of the newsletter as the #1 risk-adjusted market timer as ranked by Hulbert’s Investment Digest [sic].” He is also the author of Maverick Investing: Building Extraordinary Wealth Through Unconventional Principles and President, Fabian Wealth Strategies. Based on web searches, we find that: Keep Reading

How About Doug Casey?

A reader asked: “Can you evaluate Doug Casey in Guru Grades?” Keep Reading

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