Individual Gurus

A reader suggested a review of the investing expertise of Arch Crawford, editor and publisher of the Crawford Perspectives market timing newsletter. Arch Crawford has offered advice on financial markets based on technical analysis, sentiment indicators and planetary cycles since 1977, with a self-judgment that his “printed accuracy is Second to None!” His advice covers “the major stock indices, with some coverage of Gold, Oil, CRB Index, Bonds (Interest Rates) and the U.S. Dollar.” He offers no quantitative analysis of his trading results, but he makes publicly available an archive of 43 sequential issues of his newsletter spanning January 2002 through June 2005. In each issue is a “Vital Signs” feature that records and tracks recommendations to trade the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Using the 43 recommended S&P 500 Index trades and closing levels for the S&P 500 Index on the trade dates, we find that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Could you give a grade for the Peter Dag Portfolio? He always claims to be in Timer Digest’s top five for market timing year over year.” Keep Reading

In his 2009 book Common Sense on Mutual Funds: Fully Updated 10th Anniversary Edition, author John Bogle has “not altered a single word of the original edition, but [has] chosen instead to update its voluminous data, and to comment on significant developments that have occurred since then…”, [trying his] “best to be candid in describing occasions when experience confirmed [his] insights of a decade ago, and when experience failed to do so…” One significant development over the past decade is the growing availability and diversity of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) as substitutes for mutual funds. Some notable reflections from the book are: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Have you seen this market timer?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Nicholas Vardy sends me offers to subscribe to his newsletter. If I am to believe his claims, he could make me rich. He is not listed among your gurus. Would you consider evaluating his track record?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Do you know of Mike Paulenoff? Have you reviewed him?” Mike Paulenoff‘s web site is MPTrader.com, “a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff’s trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon…” Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here stock market forecasts of John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer of Al Frank Asset Management, who emphasizes careful stock selection, broad diversification and a long investing horizon. He is editor of the Prudent Speculator and author of The Buckingham Report (as much promotional as informative). The few forecasts found, starting in May 2002, come directly from The Buckingham Report and indirectly from articles at Forbes.com, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com and CNNMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Do you have any data and/or analysis of Norman G. Fosback’s performance?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Have you evaluated the newsletter at KeyTurningDates.com by Stephen Campbell?” Keep Reading

Jason Kelly has occasionally requested further explanation and reconsideration regarding our evaluation of his forecasting record. His requests and our responses follow: Keep Reading