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Individual Gurus

These blog entries consist of reviews of the performance of individual gurus based on information freely available on the web.

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How About Nicholas Vardy?

A reader asked: “Nicholas Vardy sends me offers to subscribe to his newsletter. If I am to believe his claims, he could make me rich. He is not listed among your gurus. Would you consider evaluating his track record?” Keep Reading

How About Mike Paulenoff?

A reader asked: “Do you know of Mike Paulenoff? Have you reviewed him?” Mike Paulenoff‘s web site is MPTrader.com, “a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff’s trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon…” Keep Reading

John Buckingham’s Prudent Speculations?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here stock market forecasts of John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer of Al Frank Asset Management, who emphasizes careful stock selection, broad diversification and a long investing horizon. He is editor of the Prudent Speculator and author of The Buckingham Report (as much promotional as informative). The few forecasts found, starting in May 2002, come directly from The Buckingham Report and indirectly from articles at Forbes.com, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com and CNNMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Norman Fosback’s Performance?

A reader asked: “Do you have any data and/or analysis of Norman G. Fosback’s performance?” Keep Reading

What About KeyTurningDates.com?

A reader asked: “Have you evaluated the newsletter at KeyTurningDates.com by Stephen Campbell?” Keep Reading

Reclama from Jason Kelly

Jason Kelly has occasionally requested further explanation and reconsideration regarding our evaluation of his forecasting record. His requests and our responses follow: Keep Reading

Jim Shepherd’s Track Record?

A reader asked: “Have you ever tracked Jim Shepherd’s market calls?” Keep Reading

Jon Markman Speculates

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here commentary from Jon Markman’s past articles at MSN Money through early 2010 and from his “Speculations” column at MarketWatch.com since May 2010. Jon Markman is the founder of Markman Capital Insight LLC, which “provides unbiased, unvarnished and up-to-the-minute information, analysis and leadership on the equity and credit markets to thousands of customers worldwide.” There are many additional, older articles by Jon Markman at MSN Money, but the search capabilities there make them very difficult to extract and organize. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Bob Hoye: Rational Fringe?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Bob Hoye via “Pivotal Events” commentary at SafeHaven. Bob Hoye is Editor & Chief Investment Strategist of Institutional Advisors, which states that: “The term ‘Rational Fringe’ has been used to distinguish our research from the mainstream convictions that financial history was random and could be managed by inspired manipulation of interest rates. Our models are based upon a thorough review of the highly volatile conclusions of 5 previous new financial eras. This provides forecasts of significant trend changes with enough lead time to formulate strategy.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Robert Drach, Trading with 95% Confidence?

A reader asked about Robert Drach’s “Basic Timing” Model Portfolio, initiated on 5/5/95 with the objective of demonstrating that market timing can beat the S&P 500 Index. The self-assessment of this portfolio (as of 8/19/09) reports 399 closed positions with an 89.7% win rate. The average closed position yields a 7.22% gain over 205 calendar days for an annualized return of 12.9%. The cumulative portfolio gain is 129%, compared to 93% for the S&P 500 Index. These cumulative returns “…are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings… They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else.” Robert Drach is publisher of the “Drach Weekly Research Report” (no web site). As explained in an article by Jon Markman, “he scales into stocks only when he believes there is a 95% likelihood of a successful result. …He focuses on buying only from a master list of 80 large stocks [with decent earnings predictability] that hasn’t changed much over the years.” Do Robert Drach’s results demonstrate market timing ability? We can address this question approximately by measuring the correlation of his cash balance (from the Cash Balance Ledger) with stock market returns. Using this cash balance data and contemporaneous S&P 500 Index data for the period 5/5/95-7/31/09 (171 months or about 14 years), we find that: Keep Reading

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