Individual Gurus

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the public stock market forecasts of Louis Navellier. Forecasts since the beginning of 2004 come from his weekly “Marketmail” archive. Pre-2004 forecasts (back to March 2001) come indirectly via MarketWatch columns. Louis Navellier is Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc. He is the editor of several investing newsletters with the central belief that “a disciplined quantitative analysis system can discover stocks that should significantly outperform the overall market over the long term.” Peter Brimelow states that “Navellier never times the market. He is always fully invested.” However, he does comment on the prospects for the overall stock market. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Richard Moroney, editor of the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter since June 2002, initially via Zacks.com and later from MarketWatch. This service claims that: “The Dow Theory’s record of keeping investors on the right side of major market trends is impressive and is a tool that no serious investor should be without.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of John Mauldin in “Thoughts from the Frontline” since January 2001 (the earliest available). According to his web site: “John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.” He is President of Millennium Wave Advisors and past CEO of “the American Bureau of Economic Research, a publisher of investment newsletters and books.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the weekly “Ahead of the Curve” columns in SmartMoney.com since August 2001 (the earliest available). The author, Don Luskin, is the Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market timing advice of Jason Kelly since late 2001. Jason Kelly is the author of the “Neatest Little Guide” series of financial books, The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the accuracy of Gary Kaltbaum’s outlooks for the overall stock market at TradingMarkets.com, available since May 2005. Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor and nationally syndicated radio commentator who believes his job is “to interpret market action based on price and volume adding in a little bit of sentiment.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the commentary in “Jubak’s Journal” at MSN Money since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN Money, with a background in journalism. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Tim Wood, as available via the Financial Sense archive from April 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Tim Wood, who maintains the “Cycles News & Views” web site, derives his market outlook from “technical studies…based on his knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory.” He considers that “these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here forecasts for the overall U.S. stock market from the commentaries of Carl Swenlin since January 2006. Carl Swenlin “is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Dan Sullivan since May 2002, previously available via Zacks.com during 9/02-10/05 and via MarketWatch columns from just before that period to the present (with some non-overlapping commentary from his MoneyShow.com articles). Dan Sullivan is editor of  The Chartist, which “tells you exactly when to buy and when to sell.” His general approach is to wait for the market to reveal a clear trend before committing or pulling funds. He states that: “We do not make predictions or pretend to have a crystal ball. Instead we let the market be our guide.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading