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Individual Gurus

These blog entries consist of reviews of the performance of individual gurus based on information freely available on the web.

How About Jack Steiman?

A reader asked and commented: “How has Jack Steiman done? I have heard that he does a good job of calling the markets.” Keep Reading

The Aden Sisters on the Stock Market

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of the Aden sisters via MarketWatch.com since June 2006. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are self-described as “two of the most influential and well known investment analysts, writers and lecturers in the world. They are the co-editors and publishers of the Aden Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter, which specializes in the U.S. stock market, mutual funds, U.S. interest rates and bonds, the international stock and bond markets, as well as the foreign exchange and precious metals markets.” They offer a public track record of successful recommendations, but not enough information to determine whether these recommendations are representative of all their recommendations or fully exploitable by subscribers. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Review of The Mutual Fund Strategist Timing (Revised to Append Comment)

A reader requested: “Please analyze The Mutual Fund Strategist, written by Holly Hooper-Fournier. They seem to have done quite well.” While the web site for this newsletter does not explicitly describe its timing method, it does explain that: “All of our timing models are oriented towards the intermediate trend…a period between several weeks and several months in duration. Focusing on the intermediate trend allows us to control risk effectively without subjecting your invested capital to the wide price swings that are associated with major trend following systems, such as a 200-day moving average.” The newsletter makes publicly available a record of “MFStrategist US Growth” timing signals since 2/16/01, as verified by TimerTrac.com. Using these 48 signals, daily dividend-adjusted closing prices for S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the daily short-term Interest Rate Composite over the period May 2000 through March 2010, we find that: Keep Reading

Steven Jon Kaplan: Overly Contrarian?

As requested by a reader, we evaluate here Steven Jon Kaplan’s commentary at True Contrarian since May 2002 (the earliest listed before a 5/22/11 reset that discarded posts prior to 5/18/11). Steven Jon Kaplan states that “each issue will feature my intermediate-term financial outlook, my long-term financial outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

John Lee (WeeklyTA): StockTwits Wizard?

A reader suggested a review of the frequent, short-term trades recorded in near real time by John Lee (WeeklyTA) via his StockTwits stream, which commenced 2/22/10. StockTwits lets users “eavesdrop on traders and investors, or contribute to the conversation and build their reputation as savvy market wizards.” John Lee offers his general trading rules in his iBankCoin blog. He has provided comments on his performance record in a separate blog. While the duration of this trading record is short, it does include many trades. These trades often have multiple partial exits. Using his stream of comments on StockTwits for 2/22/10 through 4/9/10, we find that: Keep Reading

How About FibTimer?

A reader requested: “I would like to see your grade on FibTimer. They claim to have put up some impressive numbers over the years.” Keep Reading

Dennis Slothower’s Timing

We evaluate here the stock market commentary of Dennis Slothower via Zacks.com and MarketWatch.com since June 2002. Dennis Slothower, who is editor of the Stealth Stocks and On the Money newsletters. According to Stealth Stocks, Mr. Slothower “is an absolute master at taking into account how world news – the true ‘market-moving events’ – will impact each and every investment in his trading portfolio.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Gary Shilling: A Dozen Reasons To Worry

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Gary Shilling regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Gary Shilling is founder of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., which uses a “top down” approach, “emphasizing the major themes, developed from our economic, financial, and political analysis, that will influence business and financial markets in the short and long runs. The themes are developed carefully, and we normally stick to them as they unfold, avoiding whipsawing our clients…by constant radical changes in our outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Bernie Schaeffer: The Schaeffer’s Edge?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary since late 2000 of Bernie Schaeffer, Chairman of Schaeffer’s Investment Research and Senior Editor of “Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor,” via Business Week, MarketWatch.comTheStreet.com and SchaeffersResearch.com. According to the latter, “Mr. Schaeffer is widely recognized as an expert on equity and index options, investor sentiment and market timing.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Steve Saville: From the Top Down

As suggested by two readers, we review here the U.S. stock market forecasts of Steve Saville at Safe Haven since March 2003. Steve Saville is the editor of The Speculative Investor. His forecasts “are conceived by integrating the analysis of fundamental, technical, psychological, monetary and political factors…” with “…dual focuses on the stock market (primarily the technology sector) and the gold market.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

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