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Individual Gurus

These blog entries consist of reviews of the performance of individual gurus based on information freely available on the web.

Curt Hesler: Being Cautious

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Curt Hesler since January 2003. Curt Hesler has published Professional Timing Service since 1978, noting that: “One thing I have learned is that you must be cautious to be successful.” He makes past issues of his bi-monthly newsletter, usually including an outlook for broad U.S. stock market indexes, available on a delayed basis. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

How About Investors FastTrack?

A reader asked: “I found Investors FastTrack via a search last night. Do you know anything about them?” Keep Reading

How About Tom DeMark?

A reader asked: “Have you examined Tom DeMark?” Keep Reading

Steve Sjuggerud’s Sentiment

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Steve Sjuggerud’s commentary on the U.S. stock market via the DailyWealth archive since October 2005. DailyWealth is an informational service of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, which is owned by or affiliated with Agora Inc. Stansberry & Associates Investment Research also offers Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth, “a monthly investment advisory that boasts one of the largest followings in the world,” claiming that: “Since 2001, Steve has consistently booked double- and triple-digit returns for his subscribers.” There is no trade data to justify this claim. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

How About Jack Steiman?

A reader asked and commented: “How has Jack Steiman done? I have heard that he does a good job of calling the markets.” Keep Reading

The Aden Sisters on the Stock Market

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of the Aden sisters via MarketWatch.com since June 2006. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are self-described as “two of the most influential and well known investment analysts, writers and lecturers in the world. They are the co-editors and publishers of the Aden Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter, which specializes in the U.S. stock market, mutual funds, U.S. interest rates and bonds, the international stock and bond markets, as well as the foreign exchange and precious metals markets.” They offer a public track record of successful recommendations, but not enough information to determine whether these recommendations are representative of all their recommendations or fully exploitable by subscribers. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Review of The Mutual Fund Strategist Timing (Revised to Append Comment)

A reader requested: “Please analyze The Mutual Fund Strategist, written by Holly Hooper-Fournier. They seem to have done quite well.” While the web site for this newsletter does not explicitly describe its timing method, it does explain that: “All of our timing models are oriented towards the intermediate trend…a period between several weeks and several months in duration. Focusing on the intermediate trend allows us to control risk effectively without subjecting your invested capital to the wide price swings that are associated with major trend following systems, such as a 200-day moving average.” The newsletter makes publicly available a record of “MFStrategist US Growth” timing signals since 2/16/01, as verified by TimerTrac.com. Using these 48 signals, daily dividend-adjusted closing prices for S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the daily short-term Interest Rate Composite over the period May 2000 through March 2010, we find that: Keep Reading

Steven Jon Kaplan: Overly Contrarian?

As requested by a reader, we evaluate here Steven Jon Kaplan’s commentary at True Contrarian since May 2002 (the earliest listed before a 5/22/11 reset that discarded posts prior to 5/18/11). Steven Jon Kaplan states that “each issue will feature my intermediate-term financial outlook, my long-term financial outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

John Lee (WeeklyTA): StockTwits Wizard?

A reader suggested a review of the frequent, short-term trades recorded in near real time by John Lee (WeeklyTA) via his StockTwits stream, which commenced 2/22/10. StockTwits lets users “eavesdrop on traders and investors, or contribute to the conversation and build their reputation as savvy market wizards.” John Lee offers his general trading rules in his iBankCoin blog. He has provided comments on his performance record in a separate blog. While the duration of this trading record is short, it does include many trades. These trades often have multiple partial exits. Using his stream of comments on StockTwits for 2/22/10 through 4/9/10, we find that: Keep Reading

How About FibTimer?

A reader requested: “I would like to see your grade on FibTimer. They claim to have put up some impressive numbers over the years.” Keep Reading

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