Investing Research Articles

…evidence does not support a belief that investors can generate excess returns using an industry allocation strategy based on U.S. presidential politics. Equity return anomalies based on party holding the presidency and presidential term year are marketwide phenomena.

…expert futures traders exhibit some market timing ability, and those who employ trading systems out-time those who do not. Market timing is more important to futures traders than securities selection.

…trading activity in stocks recommended by bloggers indicates that on average the recommendations (especially sells) have some real value and lasting market impact. Blogger credentials appear to matter.

…speculators may be able to exploit the volatility risk premium by selling short-term deep out-of-the-money put options and all maturities of deep out-of-the-money call options on the broad stock market, especially during periods of high volatility.

…investors may be able to exploit the predictive power of the inflation rate and the yield curve to “switch out” of bear markets and thereby beat a buy-and-hold approach.

…short sellers have acted as specialized monitors who tend to know what they are doing, but high levels of and large positive changes in institutional ownership can obscure short interest informativeness.

…dramatic growth in the number of actively managed mutual funds has driven the proportion of truly skilled funds down, without commensurate reduction in average fund fees and expenses.

…this evidence does not support a belief that technical trading rules reliably generate out-of-sample outperformance after accounting for trading frictions.

…limited tests indicate that a strategy based solely on historical price data that seeks to exploit (avoid) periods of likely above-normal (below-normal) price growth has some merit. However, evidence does not support a belief that such a strategy can reliably outperform a buy-and-hold approach over long periods.

…evidence from simple tests indicates that combining RSI and MACD signals probably does not enhance, but instead may degrade, returns from trading a broad market index.