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Investing Research Articles

3527 Research Articles

Focus on Return on Investment, Not P/E

…investors should focus on return on investment as the driver of investment returns and earnings yield as the indicator of how large the returns should be.

Measuring Company Management Sentiment

…investors/traders generally underreact to the sentiment expressed by executives in company annual reports.

Jack Schannep on Market Timing and Current Market Conditions

Our Guru Grades section ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Jack Schannep has been in the upper tier of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on market timing as a guest entry for this blog…. Keep Reading

Global Pricing of Large-capitalization Stocks?

…investors in large capitalization stocks are likely accepting a worldwide equity premium. Local (and identifiable) pockets of reward-for-risk involve small capitalization stocks.

VIX as an Indicator for Different Kinds of Portfolios

…both the long-term and short-term behaviors of the VIX appear to have some value as an indicator of future stock returns, especially for high-beta stocks.

Predicting Stock Returns Not with Volatility, But Volatilities

…when experts cite overall stock market volatility as an indicator of future market behavior, they are only half right, which is about the same as wrong.

Classic Article: Seer-Suckers, or the Efficient Everything Hypothesis

In his article entitled “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting” from the June/July 1980 issue of Technology Review, Scott Armstrong investigates the general supply of and demand for expertise across several disciplines. Based upon his survey of decades of research in multiple fields (including financial markets, psychology, health care, politics, sports), he… Keep Reading

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)

…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.

Ken Fisher on Market Analysis

Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the top of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on anticipating financial markets. He graciously agreed…. Keep Reading

An Analysis of NFI FTDs: Regulation SHO Fails to Deliver

…the trend in FTDs for NFI indicates substantial defiance of the intent of Regulation SHO, and this defiance is depressing the price of NFI stock. New FTDs most likely come from short sales three trading days in the past, implying that those most responsible for creating the FTDs are not market makers.