Investing Research Articles

Can traders exploit the essential price-moving sentiment expressed in news articles about stocks? In their August 2013 paper entitled “News versus Sentiment: Comparing Textual Processing Approaches for Predicting Stock Returns”, Steven Heston and Nitish Sinha compare the abilities of two different word sentiment dictionaries and a sophisticated neural network to predict stock returns by analyzing… Keep Reading

We are continuing to test interest in a poll regarding which of nine asset classes will perform best during the next calendar month (September 2013). The poll is in the right-hand column on the CXOadvisory.com home page below the “CURRENT MOMENTUM WINNERS” box. Participation and results are open only to CXOadvisory.com subscribers. Our assumption (based on… Keep Reading

Research on hedge fund performance derives from voluntary reports by hedge funds to commercial databases. This environment encourages: (1) backfill bias (non-reporting funds doing well are most likely to begin reporting, including historical data that arguably involves some good luck); and, (2) delisting bias (reporting funds doing poorly, arguably due in part to poor strategies,… Keep Reading

Do investors reliably reallocate between equities and cash in response to changes in government monetary stance? In their July 2013 paper entitled “Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone”, Harald Hau and Sandy Lai apply regressions to examine how variations in the tightness of monetary policy (real short-term interest rates) affect investor allocations… Keep Reading

Does the Halloween effect (sell in May) still hold? In the June 2013 version of their paper entitled “Are Stock Markets Really so Inefficient? The Case of the ‘Halloween Indicator’”, Hubert Dichtl and Wolfgang Drobetz investigate whether true out-of-sample results confirm that the Halloween effect persists for five total return indexes: S&P 500, DAX 30,… Keep Reading

The guiding belief of the Fed Model of stock market valuation is that investors use a Treasury note (T-note) yield as a benchmark for the expected (forward) earnings yield of the stock market. When the gap between the forward earnings yield and the T-note yield is positive (negative), stocks are relatively attractive (unattractive), and investors… Keep Reading

Can investors rely on overvaluation signals from the market price-earnings ratio (P/E) and the Fed Model to predict major stock market corrections? Which model works better? In their July 2013 paper entitled “Does the Bond-Stock Earning Yield Differential Model Predict Equity Market Corrections Better Than High P/E Models?”, Sebastien Lleo and William Ziemba test the power of… Keep Reading

We are continuing to test interest in a poll regarding which of nine asset classes will perform best during the next calendar month (September 2013). The poll is in the right-hand column on the CXOadvisory.com home page below the “CURRENT MOMENTUM WINNERS” box. Participation and results are open only to CXOadvisory.com subscribers. Our assumption (based on… Keep Reading

Does trading based on simple moving average crossings reliably improve the performance of a portfolio diversified across asset classes? In the February 2013 update of his paper entitled “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”, Mebane Faber examines the effects of applying a 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) timing rule separately to each of the… Keep Reading

Will increases in central bank and investor holdings of gold drive its price higher? Or, is the price of gold in bubble territory, portending weak future returns? In the May 2013 update of their paper entitled “The Golden Dilemma”, Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey investigate how investors should treat gold in asset allocation. They consider a… Keep Reading