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Investing Research Articles

3269 Research Articles

Combining Momentum and Value for Industry Rotation

…investors can enhance returns by combining value and momentum styles, leaning toward momentum when the yield curve is normal and value when the yield curve is inverted.

Scared by Randomness?

…investors/traders who check investment performance frequently should make mental adjustments for pain-avoidance bias.

Focus on Return on Investment, Not P/E

…investors should focus on return on investment as the driver of investment returns and earnings yield as the indicator of how large the returns should be.

Measuring Company Management Sentiment

…investors/traders generally underreact to the sentiment expressed by executives in company annual reports.

Jack Schannep on Market Timing and Current Market Conditions

Our Guru Grades section ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Jack Schannep has been in the upper tier of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on market timing as a guest entry for this blog…. Keep Reading

Global Pricing of Large-capitalization Stocks?

…investors in large capitalization stocks are likely accepting a worldwide equity premium. Local (and identifiable) pockets of reward-for-risk involve small capitalization stocks.

VIX as an Indicator for Different Kinds of Portfolios

…both the long-term and short-term behaviors of the VIX appear to have some value as an indicator of future stock returns, especially for high-beta stocks.

Predicting Stock Returns Not with Volatility, But Volatilities

…when experts cite overall stock market volatility as an indicator of future market behavior, they are only half right, which is about the same as wrong.

Classic Article: Seer-Suckers, or the Efficient Everything Hypothesis

“No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)

…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.