Investing Research Articles

“Results appear to indicate that firm executives are not especially good timers of the aggregate stock market.”

The rationale is recognition of a short-term reaction for stocks with momentum concentrated in a recent interval.

The valuation-based method described in “Modeling the Logic of Valuation-motivated Short Sellers” is a candidate…

…The Dark Side of Valuation presents quantitative approaches to modeling the worth of companies for which valuation is especially complex and/or judgmental.

…the beliefs that appear to motivate the approach described on the web site have support from research.

…the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) is the principal resource for papers that feed CXOadvisory.com summaries of research done by others.

…individual investors tend to have above-average intelligence but still be genetically constrained from free-wheeling use of that intelligence in making investment choices.

Continuation of uncanniness is a possibility, but instead the past relationship may derive from substantial data snooping bias and thus break down out of sample.

Jason Kelly has occasionally requested further explanation and reconsideration regarding our evaluation of his forecasting record. His requests and our responses follow:

…evidence indicates that employment growth relates negatively to future stock market behavior, most strongly at a one-year forecast horizon.