Investing Research Articles

…demographic trends suggest a headwind for U.S. equities over the next 15 years. Baby Boomers may drive P/Es down as they sell to fund retirement.

…10% annual return is currently a reasonable hedge fund benchmark.

…the greatest returns are to be found on average among stocks least widely held by institutions.

…calendar effects used to be but mostly aren’t any more.

…Professor Sornette’s attempt to model one equity market via diligent analysis of similarities to another equity market during a different time does not work, perhaps because the model is simplistically behavioral or because randomness dominates predictability.

…because mean reversion of price-to-book ratios outpaces reinvestment of earnings, value stocks outperform growth stocks.

…Warren Buffett’s consistently high level of outperformance challenges the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

…sophisticated and experienced investors/traders avoid most of the bad effects of the disposition bias. Trading practice helps.

…noise generally swamps signal (true outperformance or underperformance) in financial markets, and in life generally.

…conflicts from the brokerage business (not investment banking) play an important role in shaping analyst forecasting behavior.