Investing Research Articles

Each month, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) each month generates the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), aggregating monthly inputs from purchasing and supply executives in services firms across the U.S. regarding business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. ISM releases Services PMI for a month on the third business day of the following… Keep Reading

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) each month generates the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), aggregating monthly inputs from purchasing and supply executives in manufacturing firms across the U.S. regarding new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. ISM releases Manufacturing PMI for a month at the beginning of the following month. Does Manufacturing PMI… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/25/23 through 9/29/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/18/23 through 9/22/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked whether aggregate U.S. state tax revenues, as an indicator of economic activity, lead the U.S. stock market. To investigate, we compare behaviors of total quarterly state tax collections and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Because these series are not stationary (generally increasing rather than mean reverting), we relate changes in them…. Keep Reading

Will equity funds “managed” by artificial intelligence (AI) outperform human investors? To investigate, we consider the performance of AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ). Per the offeror, the EquBot model supporting AIEQ: “…leverages IBM’s Watson AI to conduct an objective, fundamental analysis of U.S. domiciled common stocks, including Special Purpose Acquisitions Corporations (“SPAC”), and real estate… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/11/23 through 9/15/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked how Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock behaves around unveiling of new iPhone models. To investigate, we identify 19 distinct iPhone series release dates from 6/29/07 through 9/16/22 and calculate average daily cumulative returns for AAPL from 21 trading days before release date (Day 0) through 63 trading days after release date. Two pairs… Keep Reading

Are concentrated stock portfolios inherently disadvantaged by lack of diversification? In his June 2023 paper entitled “Underperformance of Concentrated Stock Positions”, Antti Petajisto analyzes rolling future returns for individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad U.S. stock market (market-adjusted) as a way to assess implications of concentrated stock portfolios. He focuses on median return as… Keep Reading

Are new machine learning portfolio strategies practically better than old stock factor ways? In their August 2023 paper entitled “Predicting Returns with Machine Learning Across Horizons, Firms Size, and Time”, Nusret Cakici, Christian Fieberg, Daniel Metko and Adam Zaremba examine the ability of various machine learning models to predict stock returns for: (1) monthly and… Keep Reading