A subscriber asked about current evidence that high-dividend stocks outperform the market. To investigate, we compare performances of 10 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding high-dividend stocks to that of SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) as a proxy for...
What is the outlook for the price of bitcoin over the next decade? In their August 2025 paper entitled “Bitcoin Supply, Demand, and Price Dynamics”, Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter model the price evolution of...
Do AIs that incorporate audio and video (multimodal) aspects of firm/stock analysis (e.g. from YouTube), including tone, delivery style and facial expressions, distill better buy and sell recommendations from financial influencers (finfluencers) than text-only large...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/2/25 through 9/5/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Does bitcoin (BTC) return exhibit any exploitable leading or lagging roles with respect to gold (SPDR Gold Shares – GLD) return, change in the all-items consumer price index (CPI) or change in the effective federal...
Is the performance of listed private equity funds (LPE) on the London Stock Exchange attractive? In their August 2025 paper entitled “What the London Stock Exchange can Teach Us About Private Equity”, Richard Ennis and...
How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR)? We focus on monthly changes (simple differences) in EFFR and look at lead-lag relationships between change in EFFR and...
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on cybersecurity stocks offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of five cybersecurity ETFs, all currently available, to those of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), as follows: Amplify Cybersecurity...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/25/25 through 8/29/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, all currently available, to those for a monthly rebalanced 60%-40%...
Do returns for U.S. stock options exhibit half-day momentum/reversal effects? In their August 2025 paper entitled “In Search of Seasonality in Intraday and Overnight Option Returns”, Turan Bali, Amit Goyal, Mathis Moerke and Florian Weigert...
Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news...
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that track asset classes, such as those used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS), exhibit reliable seasonalities? To check,...
Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer distractions, signal unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/18/25 through 8/22/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
How should global investors assess country sovereign bond and equity risks? In his July 2025 paper entitled “Country Risk: Determinants, Measures and Implications – The 2025 Edition”, Aswath Damodaran examines country risk from multiple perspectives....
Do a relatively few stocks drive the alphas of many anomalies? In the May 2025 revision of his paper entitled “The Intersection of Expected Returns”, Austin Sobotka explores stock overlap among the portfolios of 164...
Do alternative “Cash” (deemed risk-free) instruments materially affect performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS)? Changing the proxy for Cash can affect how often the model selects Cash, as well as the return...
Does adding an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or note (ETN) to the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) boost performance via consideration of more trending/diversifying options? To investigate, we add the following 24 ETF/ETN asset...
Are all of the potentially trending/diversifying asset class proxies used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) necessary? Might one or more of them actually be harmful to performance? To investigate, we each...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/11/25 through 8/15/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Do stocks of homebuilders, whose sales are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, reliably lead the overall stock market? To check, we look at lead-lag relationships between monthly returns for SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)...
How should retail investors view funds offering private equity opportunities? In his July 2025 paper entitled “Private Markets for the People? Or Just More People for Private Markets?”, Ludovic Phalippou assesses the push to expand...
Speculator level of interest (attention) is plausibly key to bitcoin price behavior. Does the level of online searching for “bitcoin” as a proxy for attention usefully predict bitcoin return? To investigate, we examine interactions between...
Traders can buy and sell bitcoin any day of the week. Do bitcoin returns exhibit anomalies by day of the week, perhaps especially because of weekend trading? To investigate, we calculate (1) average return and...