Classic Article: Seer-Suckers, or the Efficient Everything Hypothesis
April 19, 2006 - Investing Expertise
“No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”
April 19, 2006 - Investing Expertise
“No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”
April 18, 2006 - Investing Expertise
…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.
April 7, 2006 - Individual Gurus
Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the top of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on anticipating financial markets. He graciously agreed…. Keep Reading
April 4, 2006 - Short Selling
…the trend in FTDs for NFI indicates substantial defiance of the intent of Regulation SHO, and this defiance is depressing the price of NFI stock. New FTDs most likely come from short sales three trading days in the past, implying that those most responsible for creating the FTDs are not market makers.
March 30, 2006 - Investing Expertise
…geographical and corporate spans suggest that at least some message boards suggest both independence and diversity. There is not enough information in IP sourcing to infer the presence of valuable private information.
March 29, 2006 - Investing Expertise
…industry focus (depth) and general diligence (timeliness) produce superior analysis.
March 28, 2006 - Investing Expertise
…the aggregate market timing ability, positive performance persistence and stock picking ability of investment newsletters are unimpressive.
March 23, 2006 - Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
…the Morningstar mutual fund rating system offers value to investors seeking funds for outperformance over the next few years.
March 21, 2006 - Investing Expertise
…analysts are good for identifying the relative value of stocks within sectors in which they are experts, but not for forecasting macro factors that drive sector and overall market movements.
March 20, 2006 - Individual Investing
…investors/traders may want to consider how their personality traits dispose them toward or away from outperformance.