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3151 Research Articles

Classic Article: Seer-Suckers, or the Efficient Everything Hypothesis

“No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)

…political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.

Ken Fisher on Market Analysis

Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the top of the list since inception, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on anticipating financial markets. He graciously agreed…. Keep Reading

An Analysis of NFI FTDs: Regulation SHO Fails to Deliver

…the trend in FTDs for NFI indicates substantial defiance of the intent of Regulation SHO, and this defiance is depressing the price of NFI stock. New FTDs most likely come from short sales three trading days in the past, implying that those most responsible for creating the FTDs are not market makers.

Who Reads Yahoo! Message Boards?

…geographical and corporate spans suggest that at least some message boards suggest both independence and diversity. There is not enough information in IP sourcing to infer the presence of valuable private information.

The Secret Ingredients of Top Analysts?

…industry focus (depth) and general diligence (timeliness) produce superior analysis.

Classic Papers: The Value of Investment Newsletters?

…the aggregate market timing ability, positive performance persistence and stock picking ability of investment newsletters are unimpressive.

The Morningstar Mutual Fund Rating System Works?

…the Morningstar mutual fund rating system offers value to investors seeking funds for outperformance over the next few years.

Finding a Use for Analyst Price Targets?

…analysts are good for identifying the relative value of stocks within sectors in which they are experts, but not for forecasting macro factors that drive sector and overall market movements.

Got a Winning Personality?

…investors/traders may want to consider how their personality traits dispose them toward or away from outperformance.