Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for February 2023 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for February 2023 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF
Filter Research

Investing Research Articles

3272 Research Articles

The Diversity and Persistence of Quacks

…naive customers for services with outcomes for which it is hard to distinguish skill from luck will attract and sustain a diverse set of quacks.

Buy Stocks of Companies Experts Hate?

…the stocks of companies least admired by the ostensibly well-informed may well outperform the stocks of the companies most admired.

Hedge Funds Versus Mutual Funds

…the small positive alpha of hedge funds in aggregate is likely to move toward the negative alpha of the mutual fund industry in the coming years.

Aggregate Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns

…aggregate investor sentiment offers some value in forecasting stock returns, especially for the most speculative stocks.

A Bear’s Perspective on a Bull Market?

When the market trend challenges their beliefs, what do we hear from market “experts?”

Review of the Financial Forecast Center’s Forecasts

…while the nine-month sample assembled does not support statistically reliable conclusions, the Financial Forecast Center’s approaches to forecasting the S&P 500 index and the CPI do not look promising.

Why Rational Asset Pricing Models Don’t Work Well

…the authors find that both market friction and investor irrationality play substantial roles in the pricing of stocks.

Classic Paper: Empirical Overview of Commodity Futures

…commodity futures in aggregate offer a long-term return comparable to that of stocks, with less downside risk and a substantial diversification benefit for a stock/bond portfolio.

A Sign of All Times…

…is fear as a sales pitch.

A Fed Model Defense

…the Fed model and the long-term P/E mean reversion model are complementary perspectives on return prediction, with the former reasonably useful for forecasting up to three years into the future and the latter applicable over longer horizons.