Investing Research Articles

Martin Goldberg sent a comment on our review of his stock market commentaries (“Martin Goldberg: Financial Sense?”). The following exchange presents Mr. Goldberg’s message without editing.

…mutual fund investors can enhance odds of beating passive benchmarks by focusing on funds with expense ratios that are among the lowest within category.

…pricing of out-of-the-money put options for the S&P 500 index indicates that investors expect 50% stock market crashes every 50 years.

…observations have implications for investing and trading from the perspectives of avoiding irrationality as individuals and exploiting the systematic irrationalities of others.

…low (high) investor sentiment is especially indicative of future outperformance (underperformance) by the most speculative stocks.

…after accounting for trading frictions, medium-term long-short industry momentum strategies implemented via sector/industry ETFs do not offer abnormal returns.

…evidence from a small sample does not support a belief that ValueEngine’s market overview statistics meaningfully predict near-term behavior of the broad stock market.

…the media employs mostly sentimental shortcuts in assessing company performance, and the sentiments expressed are much more reflective of past trends than future performance.

…the reactions of aggregated commodity futures prices to surprises in macroeconomic indicators (up and down with inflation and real activity) are most reliable during recessions.

…trading fees, trader capital constraints and inclusion of open positions may substantially reduce or eliminate “Short Term Stock Selector” profitability as summarized by the offeror.