We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/26/26 through 5/29/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for June 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS...
Does breadth of equity sector performance predict overall stock market return? To investigate, we relate next-month stock market return to sector breadth (number of sectors with positive past returns) over lookback intervals ranging from 1...
A subscriber asked which exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies make the best safe havens for the U.S. stock market as proxied by the S&P 500 Index. To investigate, we test 16 ETFs/funds as potential...
Are exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on Initial Public Offerings of stocks (IPO) attractive? To investigate, we consider three of the largest IPO ETFs and one recent Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) ETF, one of which...
Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as U.S. Treasuries selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...
How does the performance of the U.S. stock market compare to that of the aggregated stock markets in the rest of the world over the long run? Is there alternating leadership? To investigate, we use...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/18/26 through 5/22/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Is systematically selling covered call options on equity indexes, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five equity covered call ETFs: Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) – seeks to track the CBOE...
Does the informativeness of markets come from wisdom of the crowd or the wisdom of a few? If a few, who are they? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beyond the Wisdom of the Crowd:...
One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index...
Does the Memorial Day holiday signal any unusual U.S. stock market return effects? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from three-day weekends and sometimes the turn of the month. Prior to...
How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) that employ artificial intelligence (AI) to pick assets perform? To investigate, we consider ten such ETFs, eight of which are currently available: Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) – picks U.S....
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/11/26 through 5/15/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Does the conventional wisdom to “Sell in May” (and “Buy in November”, hence also the term “Halloween Effect”) work over the long run, perhaps due to biological/psychological effects of seasons (Seasonal Affective Disorder)? To check,...
Are prediction markets better at forecasting firm earnings than professional analysts? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beating the Earnings Game: Why Do Prediction Markets Outperform Professional Analysts?”, Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi Shao and Che Zhang...
Does the empirical accuracy of prediction markets derive from crowd wisdom or an informed few? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?”, Roberto Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Jensen...
The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (a little higher than) forecasted.
Can artificial intelligence (AI) agents based on a large language model (LLM) carry most of the load in strategic asset allocation? In their April 2026 paper entitled “The Self-Driving Portfolio: Agentic Architecture for Institutional Asset...
Are broad measures of public sociopolitical sentiment relevant to investors? Do they predict stock returns as indicators of exuberance and fear? To investigate, we relate S&P 500 Index return and 12-month trailing S&P 500 price-operating...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/4/26 through 5/8/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
When assigned to perform the same empirical financial research, do the findings of human researchers and large language models (LLM) as a kind of artificial intelligence (AI) differ? If so, why? In their March 2026...
Should investors seeking to exploit both value and momentum factors in U.S. stocks prefer two separate portfolios or one that integrates stock selection? In his February 2026 paper entitled “Don’t Mix What Should Be Separated:...
What are current estimates of equity risk premiums (ERP) and risk-free rates around the world? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Survey: Market Risk Premium and Risk-Free Rate used for 97 countries in 2026”, Pablo...