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Asset Class ETF Interactions with the Yuan

How do different asset classes interact with the Chinese yuan-U.S. dollar exchange rate? To investigate, we consider relationships between WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy (CYB) and the following exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) at a monthly measurement frequency:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)

Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for CYB and the asset class proxies during May 2008 (when all ETFs are first available, limited by CYB) through July 2018 (123 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 9/4/18 – 9/7/18

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/4/18 through 9/7/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.

Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. Keep Reading

Asset Class ETF Interactions with the Yen

How do different asset classes interact with the Japanese yen-U.S. dollar exchange rate? To investigate, we consider relationships between Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) and the following exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) at a monthly measurement frequency:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)

Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for FXY and the asset class proxies during February 2007 (when all ETFs are first available, limited by FXY) through July 2018 (123 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Asset Class ETF Interactions with the Euro

How do different asset classes interact with euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate ? To investigate, we consider relationships between Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency (FXE) and the following exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) at a monthly measurement frequency:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)

Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for FXE and the asset class proxies during February 2006 (when all ETFs are first available, limited by DBC) through July 2018 (150 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Asset Class ETF Interactions with the U.S. Dollar

How do different asset classes interact with aggregate U.S. dollar valuation? To investigate, we consider relationships between Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) and the following exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) at a monthly measurement frequency:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)

Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for UUP and the asset class proxies during March 2007 (when all ETFs are first available, limited by UUP) through July 2018 (137 months), we find that: Keep Reading

PPI and the Stock Market

Inflation at the producer level (derived from the Producer Price Index – PPI) is arguably an advance indicator for inflation downstream at the consumer level (derived from the Consumer Price Index – CPI). Do investors therefore reliably react to changes in PPI as an indicator of the future wealth discount rate? In other words, is a high (low) producer-level inflation rate bad (good) for the stock market? Using monthly, non-seasonally adjusted PPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and contemporaneous S&P 500 Index levels during January 1950 through July 2018 (823 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 8/27/18 – 8/31/18

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/27/18 through 8/31/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.

Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. Keep Reading

SACEMS with Different Alternatives for “Cash”

Do alternative “Cash” (deemed risk-free) instruments materially affect performance of the“Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS)? Changing the proxy for Cash can affect how often the model selects Cash, as well as the return on Cash when selected. To investigate, we test separately each of the following yield and exchange-traded funds (ETF) as the risk-free asset:

3-month Treasury bills (Cash), a proxy for the money market as in base SACEMS
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill (BIL)
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)

In other words, we add one of the five risk-free assets to the following base set of eight ETFs:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)

We focus on the equally weighted (EW) EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolio and consider all performance metrics used for base SACEMS. Using end-of-month total (dividend-adjusted) returns for the specified assets during February 2006 (except May 2007 for BIL) through July 2018, we find that:

Keep Reading

Downside Risk Premiums

Does focusing on downside risk (volatility or beta) consistently produce more accurate forecasts of asset returns? In their July 2018 paper entitled “Tail Risk in the Cross Section of Alternative Risk Premium Strategies”, Bernd Scherer and Nick Baltas investigate how well downside risk explains cross-sectional returns of 260 risk factor strategies spanning asset classes and investment styles from six global investment banks. Their main model is a two-pass regression that distinguishes between conventional market beta and market downside beta. For corroboration, they consider four other indicators of downside risk (return skewness, correlation of tail returns with equity market returns, TED spread and economic policy uncertainty as measured by relative VIX level). Using weekly data risk factor returns and downside risk indicators during February 2008 through January 2018, they find that: Keep Reading

SACEMS Applied to Mutual Funds

A subscriber inquired whether a longer test of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) is feasible using mutual funds rather than exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies. To investigate, we consider the following set of mutual funds (partly adapted from the paper summarized in “Asset Allocation Combining Momentum, Volatility, Correlation and Crash Protection”):

Oppenheimer Commodity Strategy Total Return A (QRAAX) until its discontinuation in mid-2016, and PIMCO CommoditiesPLUS Strategy (PCPSX) thereafter.
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Investor Shares (VEIEX)
Fidelity Diversified International (FDIVX)
First Eagle Gold A (SGGDX)
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Investor Shares (VTSMX)
Vanguard Small Capitalization Index Investor Shares  (NAESX)
Vanguard REIT Index Investor Shares (VGSIX)
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Investor Shares (VUSTX)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

We rank mutual funds based on total (dividend-adjusted) returns over past (lookback) intervals of one to 12 months. We consider portfolios of past mutual fund winners based on Top 1 and on equally weighted (EW) Top 2 through Top 5. We consider as benchmarks: an equally weighted portfolio of all mutual funds, rebalanced monthly (EW All); buying and holding VTSMX; and, holding VTSMX when the S&P 500 Index is above its 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) and Cash when the index is below its SMA10 (VTSMX:SMA10). Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for the above mutual funds and the yield for Cash during March 1997 through July 2018 (269 months), we find that: Keep Reading

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