In his article entitled “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting” from the June/July 1980 issue of Technology Review, Scott Armstrong investigates the general supply of and demand for expertise across several disciplines....
...political forecasting seems a lot like financial markets forecasting, with slim evidence that the forecasters can beat simple algorithms.
Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments, has been at or near the...
...the trend in FTDs for NFI indicates substantial defiance of the intent of Regulation SHO, and this defiance is depressing the price of NFI stock. New FTDs most likely come from short sales three trading...
...geographical and corporate spans suggest that at least some message boards suggest both independence and diversity. There is not enough information in IP sourcing to infer the presence of valuable private information.
...industry focus (depth) and general diligence (timeliness) produce superior analysis.
...the aggregate market timing ability, positive performance persistence and stock picking ability of investment newsletters are unimpressive.
...the Morningstar mutual fund rating system offers value to investors seeking funds for outperformance over the next few years.
Might the relative sizes of the gaps between analyst target and actual prices indicate degrees of current misvaluation? In other words, is a stock with analyst target price twice its current price a better buy...
...investors/traders may want to consider how their personality traits dispose them toward or away from outperformance.
...the wealthiest investors exhibit research-mitigated risk-taking and efficient opportunity search.
...there is probably no Halloween effect distinct from the (diminishing) January effect in the U.S. stock market.
...executives of public companies use optimistic and pessimistic language to communicate credible information about expected future firm performance, and the market responds to this information.
...this synthesis of the theories of physical entropy, information processing and evolution offers an interesting perspective on investor psychology and financial market behavior.
...aggregate distribution of analyst recommendations is a coincident or lagging stock market indicator, and those firms that appear to be most realistic (honest) with their distribution of recommendations provide the best advice.
...stock market information warfare may be a winning strategy.
Is this how a savvy hedge fund manager plays the game? First, get cozy with other fund managers, financial market research firms and the financial media. Then “orchestrate” the attention paid to a company in...
...reputational concerns of institutional fund managers may create mispricing opportunities for other investors.
...ormal research on the emotions of investing suggests that mood affects investor behavior, but it does not offer much in the way of practical trading edges. Keeping one's own emotions in check does seem key...
...traders can outperform by entering positions when volatility spikes and then taking profits quickly.
...rapid meme detection via Internet-enabled technologies may offer an edge for tuned-in traders.
...investors/traders may pivot on earnings, but appear to react to the inflation rate rather than interest rates.
...equity investors should be contrarian when considering economic forecasts. Bad is good.
...the empirical evidence for the size effect is superficially consistent, but frail at closer inspection. The size effect is not "dead," but it is ailing.
...the bid-ask spread, transaction costs and the price impact of trading make the value premium in small-capitalization stocks hard to capture. The prey is generally too elusive for mutual funds and indexes.