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Investing Research Articles

3584 Research Articles

Performance of Michael Farr’s Annual Top 10 Stocks

Does Michael Farr, CEO and founder of Farr, Miller & Washington, offer good stock picks via his annual CNBC articles identifying the best 10 stocks for the next year? To investigate, we take his picks for 2022, 2023 and 2024, calculate the associated annual (first half only for 2024) total returns for each stock and… Keep Reading

The Value of an Experienced Technician?

Does subjective technical analysis truly add value? In their June 2024 paper entitled “The Power Of Price Action Reading”, Carlo Zarattini and Marios Stamatoudis investigate the value added to simple trading rules by the discretionary judgments of an experienced technician for a sample of stocks with: (1) overnight gaps up over 6%; (2) minimum opening… Keep Reading

Are Stock Quality ETFs Working?

Are stock quality strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five ETFs, all currently available (from oldest to youngest): Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ) – seeks to track performance of S&P 500 stocks with the highest quality scores based on firm return on equity, accruals ratio and financial leverage… Keep Reading

SPY-EFA-BND 50-25-25?

A subscriber observed and asked: “Many Bogleheads at Vanguard prefer a buy and hold portfolio of 50% SPY, 25% each BND and EFA [rebalanced annually]. How does this compare to your current strategy? And how does it compare to buy and hold QQQ?” To compare, we compute gross monthly returns for the following six strategies:… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 7/22/24 – 7/26/24

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/22/24 through 7/26/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Less Frequent Reformations/Rebalancings for SACEVS and SACEMS?

A subscriber requested evaluation of versions of the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS), the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and a combination of the two, as follows: For SACEVS Best Value, which chooses the asset proxy for the term, credit or equity premium that is most undervalued (if any), use only… Keep Reading

Doing Momentum with Style (ETFs)

“Beat the Market with Hot-Anomaly Switching?” concludes that “a trader who periodically switches to the hottest known anomaly based on a rolling window of past performance may be able to beat the market. Anomalies appear to have their own kind of momentum.” Does momentum therefore work for style-based exchange-traded funds (ETF)? To investigate, we apply… Keep Reading

Self-inflating ETFs

Do narrow exchange-traded funds (ETF), such as specific technology-focused funds, exhibit a predictable lifecycle of fund inflows that inflate prices of holdings followed by fund outflows that depress prices of holdings? In their May 2024 paper entitled “Ponzi Funds”, Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina decompose ETF returns into price pressure (self-inflated)… Keep Reading

Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Update/Extension

“Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” investigates performances of simple momentum trading strategies for the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) executed with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR): Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Consumer Staples… Keep Reading

Equity Industry/Sector Price Run-ups and Future Returns

A subscriber suggested review of the February 2017 paper “Bubbles for Fama”, in which Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You assess Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit bubbles. They define a bubble candidate as a value-weighted U.S. industry or international sector that rises over 100% in both raw and net of… Keep Reading