Investing Research Articles

Is the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect globally ubiquitous and persistent? In his August 2014 paper entitled “The Turn-of-The-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model”, Eleftherios Giovanis examines the TOTM effect in 20 country stock markets spanning the Americas, Australia, Europe and Asia. He defines TOTM as the interval including the last trading day of… Keep Reading

Does playing trends both ways via periodic rebalancing (betting on reversion) and momentum (betting on continuation) reliably produce attractive outcomes? In the August 2014 version of their paper entitled “Rebalancing Risk”, Nick Granger, Doug Greenig, Campbell Harvey, Sandy Rattray and David Zou investigate the effects of adding a momentum overlay to a conventionally rebalanced stocks-bonds portfolio…. Keep Reading

Should investors seeking leveraged positions in gold prefer futures or leveraged exchanged-traded funds (ETF)? In their August 2014 paper entitled “Price Dynamics of Gold Futures and Gold Leveraged ETFs”, Tim Leung and Brian Ward compare the price evolutions of spot gold, gold futures and leveraged gold ETFs. They use the XAU-USD gold-U.S. dollar exchange rate as the… Keep Reading

Is a position in gold consistently effective in protecting a portfolio of conventional assets? In the August 2014 preliminary version of their paper entitled “Does Gold Glitter in the Long-Run? Gold as a Hedge and Safe Haven Across Time and Investment Horizon”, Don Bredin, Thomas Conlon and Valerio Potì examine the hedging, safe-haven and downside risk… Keep Reading

Does the stock momentum anomaly interact with the quarterly financial cycle? In his August 2014 paper entitled “Seasonal Patterns in Momentum and Reversal in the U.S. Stock Market: The Consequences of Tax-Loss Sales and Window Dressing”, David Brown examines whether tax-loss selling and window dressing at the ends of calendar quarters affect U.S. stock momentum strategy returns…. Keep Reading

Is the capitalization-weighted market portfolio a lame benchmark? In his August 2014 paper entitled “It’s Easy to Beat the Market”, Moshe Levy tests the perception that it is hard to beat a capitalization-weighted portfolio and therefore that an index so weighted is a challenging benchmark. Specifically, he compares the gross risk-adjusted performance of a capitalization-weighted buy-and-hold portfolio to those of 1,000… Keep Reading

What is the best estimate of the Equity Risk Premium (ERP), the return in excess of the risk-free rate required as compensation for the risk of holding equity? In his August 2014 paper entitled “A History of the Equity Risk Premium and its Estimation”, Basil Copeland summarizes recent ERP estimates and explains how the historical equity return can overstate… Keep Reading

Do financial markets adapt to widespread use of an indicator, such as Bollinger Bands, thereby extinguishing its informativeness? In the August 2014 version of their paper entitled “Popularity versus Profitability: Evidence from Bollinger Bands”, Jiali Fang, Ben Jacobsen and Yafeng Qin investigate the effectiveness of Bollinger Bands as a stock market trading signal before and after its introduction in 1983. They focus… Keep Reading

How much performance improvement comes from rebalancing a stocks-bonds portfolio, and what specific rebalancing approach works best? In their August 2014 paper entitled “Testing Rebalancing Strategies for Stock-Bond Portfolios Across Different Asset Allocations”, Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Martin Wambach investigate the net performance implications of different rebalancing approaches and different rebalancing frequencies on portfolios of stocks and government bonds… Keep Reading

Does focus on nearest-expiration contracts in commodity futures momentum strategies leave money on the table? In their May 2014 paper entitled “Exploiting Commodity Momentum Along the Futures Curves”, Wilma De Groot, Dennis Karstanje and Weili Zhou investigate commodities futures momentum strategies that consider all available contract expirations. They hypothesize that a broadened contract universe could increase roll yield, reduce volatility and lower… Keep Reading