Investing Research Articles

…evidence indicates that 3-month rolling VIX futures contracts may be the preferred way for investors to hedge stock market positions against crashes.

…evidence from an array of tests does not support beliefs that CFA designation, MBA degree and level of experience are critical success factors for investment managers.

…while The Gleason Report’s Stock Value Model has performed well in real time (as claimed) since 1999, the performance sample is very small for reliable inference in terms of number of signals, and the most recent signals have poor outcomes.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit industrial metal prices as a leading indicator of stock market returns by recognizing that the relationship is positive (negative) for bad (good) economic conditions.

…evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong.

…evidence indicates that hedge fund investors should focus on funds with the best past performances and the most distinctive (uncorrelated) strategies.

…findings suggest that momentum, whether based on past returns or moving averages, exists to some degree for currencies. The studies appear not to address combining past returns and moving averages to predict currency market returns.

…evidence indicates that large (diversified) hedge fund investors may be able to exploit multiple predictive factors by averaging their predictive powers to enhance returns derived from selecting recent past winners.

…evidence from simple tests suggest that junk bond mutual funds exhibit return momentum perhaps exploitable via a multi-asset class allocation strategy (but not a standalone timing strategy).

Two charts added to “Market Models”, a backtest of the 6-month forecasts and a current valuation map, offer context for the projections from the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of the U.S. stock market.