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3209 Research Articles

Aggregate Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns

…aggregate investor sentiment offers some value in forecasting stock returns, especially for the most speculative stocks.

A Bear’s Perspective on a Bull Market?

When the market trend challenges their beliefs, what do we hear from market “experts?”

Review of the Financial Forecast Center’s Forecasts

…while the nine-month sample assembled does not support statistically reliable conclusions, the Financial Forecast Center’s approaches to forecasting the S&P 500 index and the CPI do not look promising.

Why Rational Asset Pricing Models Don’t Work Well

…the authors find that both market friction and investor irrationality play substantial roles in the pricing of stocks.

Classic Paper: Empirical Overview of Commodity Futures

…commodity futures in aggregate offer a long-term return comparable to that of stocks, with less downside risk and a substantial diversification benefit for a stock/bond portfolio.

A Sign of All Times…

Does blatant disrespect for the doom segment of the financial services industry portends a market top?

A Fed Model Defense

…the Fed model and the long-term P/E mean reversion model are complementary perspectives on return prediction, with the former reasonably useful for forecasting up to three years into the future and the latter applicable over longer horizons.

The Accuracies of Different Valuation Multiples (Ratios)

How well do commonly used valuation multiples align with actual stock prices? In their January 2007 paper entitled “Multiples and Their Valuation Accuracy in European Equity Markets”, Andreas Schreiner and Klaus Spremann investigate the accuracy of the valuation multiple method in general and the properties of 50 different multiples (see the figure below). They define… Keep Reading

The Rareness and Elusiveness of Mutual Fund Outperformance

…this review of mutual fund studies makes low-cost, broad market exchange traded funds sound good.

Igor Greenwald: Ignore Igor?

We evaluate here the advice offered in the “Trendspotting” column in SmartMoney.com by Igor Greenwald since October 2002 (the earliest available). Igor Greenwald was a regular writer and columnist for SmartMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days… Keep Reading