Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for October 2020 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for October 2020 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF

Strategic Allocation

Is there a best way to select and weight asset classes for long-term diversification benefits? These blog entries address this strategic allocation question.

Safe Haven Benchmark Index

How should investors evaluate the effectiveness of a safe haven asset? In their July 2020 paper entitled “A Safe Haven Index”, Dirk Baur and Thomas Dimpfl devise and apply a safe haven index (SHI) to evaluate over 20 individual potential safe haven assets. SHI consists of seven equal-weighted assets: gold, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year German government bonds. For evaluations, they focus on four safe haven events: the October 1987 stock market crash, the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the September 2008 Lehman collapse and the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily data for index components and other potential safe haven assets as available during January 1985 through May 2020, they find that:

Keep Reading

SACEMS with Different Alternatives for “Cash”

Do alternative “Cash” (deemed risk-free) instruments materially affect performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS)? Changing the proxy for Cash can affect how often the model selects Cash, as well as the return on Cash when selected. To investigate, we test separately each of the following yield and exchange-traded funds (ETF) as the risk-free asset:

3-month Treasury bills (Cash), a proxy for the money market as in base SACEMS
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill (BIL)
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)

We focus on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and maximum drawdown (MaxDD) as key performance metrics and consider Top 1, equally weighted (EW) EW Top 2 and EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolios. Using end-of-month total (dividend-adjusted) returns for the specified assets during February 2006 (except May 2007 for BIL) through June 2020, we find that:

Keep Reading

Optimal SACEMS Lookback Interval Update

How sensitive is performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) to choice of momentum calculation lookback interval, and what interval works best? To investigate, we generate gross compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and maximum drawdowns (MaxDD) for SACEMS Top 1, equally weighted (EW) EW Top 2 and EW Top 3 portfolios over lookback intervals ranging from one to 12 months. All calculations start at the end of February 2007 based on inception of the commodities exchange-traded fund and the longest lookback interval. Using end-of-month total (dividend-adjusted) returns for the SACEMS asset universe during February 2006 through June 2020, we find that: Keep Reading

Classic Stocks-Bonds Portfolios with Leveraged ETFs

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios and Portfolio Insurance”, flagged by a subscriber, Mikhail Smirnov and Alexander Smirnov consider several variations of classic stocks/bonds portfolio as implemented with leveraged ETFs. They ultimately focus on a monthly rebalanced partially 3X-leveraged portfolio consisting of:

  • 40% ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)
  • 20% Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF)
  • 40% iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

To verify findings, we consider this portfolio and several 60/40 and 40/60 stocks/bonds portfolios. We look at net monthly performance statistics, along with compound annual growth rate (CAGR), maximum drawdown (MaxDD) based on monthly data and annual Sharpe ratio. To estimate monthly rebalancing frictions, we use 0.5% of amount traded each month. We use average monthly 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield during a year as the risk-free rate in Sharpe ratio calculations for that year. Using monthly adjusted prices for TQQQ, TMF, TLT and for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) to construct benchmarks during February 2010 (limited by TQQQ inception) through June 2020, we find that: Keep Reading

Ending with the Beginning in Mind

How should investors think about the interactions between working years (retirement account contributions) and retirement years (retirement account withdrawals)? In his June 2020 paper entitled “Retirement Planning: From Z to A”, Javier Estrada integrates working and retirement periods to estimate how much an individual should save and how they should invest to achieve a desired retirement income and ultimate bequest to heirs. He illustrates his analytical solution empirically for U.S. stocks and bonds, first using a base case plus sensitivity analysis and then using Monte Carlo simulations. His base case assumes:

  • Work will last 40 years with a 60%/40% stocks/bonds retirement portfolio.
  • Retirement will last 30 years with beginning-of-year real (inflation-adjusted) withdrawals of $60,000 from a 40%/60% stocks/bonds retirement portfolio and ultimate bequest $300,000.

Using annual data for U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 Index total return), bonds (10-year U.S. Treasury notes) and U.S. inflation during 1928 through 2019, he finds that: Keep Reading

Update of Findings for a Highly Influential Asset Allocation Paper

“A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation” is a highly influential paper (over 234,000 downloads from SSRN) about asset allocation based on trend following, with the original version posted in early 2007 and a revision in early 2013. The strategy in that paper applies a 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) timing rule separately to each of five total return indexes as components of an equally weighted, monthly rebalanced portfolio: (1) S&P 500 Index; (2) 10-Year Treasury note constant duration index; (3) MSCI EAFE international developed markets index; (4) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI); and, (5) National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts index. Specifically, at the end of each month, the model enters from cash (exits to cash) any index crossing above (below) its SMA10. Entry and exit dates are the same a signal dates (requiring some anticipation of signals before the close). This paper (summarized in “Asset Allocation Based on Trends Defined by Moving Averages”) spawned hundreds (thousands?) of trend following/momentum-based asset allocation strategies since publication, including to some degree the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). How well has the original strategy performed during ascendance of exchange-trade funds (ETF) as asset class proxies? To evaluate, we apply the strategy (QA-TAA) to the following five asset class proxy ETFs and cash:

  • SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
  • iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
  • PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
  • Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
  • 3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

We consider buying and holding SPY, the SMA10 ruled applied to SPY (SPY:SMA10) and an equally weighted, monthly rebalanced portfolio of the five asset class ETFs (EW All) as benchmarks. Using monthly dividend-adjusted prices for the specified assets during February 2006 (limited by DBC) through June 2020, we find that:

Keep Reading

Demise of Multi-class Investing?

Does multi-class investing boost performance for sophisticated investors such as educational endowments? In his June 2020 paper entitled “Endowment Performance and the Demise of the Multi-Asset-Class Model”, Richard Ennis examines recent performance of educational endowment funds, with focus on allocations to alternative assets. Using performance data from a report on 774 university endowments and from hand-collected annual reports for some large individual endowments during June 2008 through June 2019, he finds that: Keep Reading

SACEMS Portfolio-Asset Addition Testing

Does adding an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or note (ETN) to the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) boost performance via consideration of more trending/diversifying options? To investigate, we add the following 22 ETF/ETN asset class proxies one at a time to the base set and measure effects on the Top 1, equally weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolios:

AlphaClone Alternative Alpha (ALFA)
JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index (AMJ)
UBS ETRACS Wells Fargo Business Development Companies (BDCS)
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND)
SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bond (BWX)
iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (FM)
First Trust US IPO Index (FPX)
iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
iShares Latin America 40 (ILF)
iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
PowerShares Closed-End Fund Income Composite (PCEF)
PowerShares Global Listed Private Equity (PSP)
IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker (QAI)
PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ)
SPDR Dow Jones International Real Estate (RWX)
ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
iShares Short Treasury Bond (SHV)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY)
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures (VIXM)

We focus on gross compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and gross maximum drawdown (MaxDD) as key performance statistics, ignoring monthly reformation costs. Using end-of-month, dividend-adjusted returns for all assets as available during February 2006 through May 2020, we find that: Keep Reading

SACEMS Portfolio-Asset Exclusion Testing

Are all of the potentially trending/diversifying asset class proxies used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) necessary? Might one or more of them actually be harmful to performance? To investigate, we each month rank the nine SACEMS assets based on past return with one excluded (nine separate test series) and reform the Top 1, equally weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolios. We focus on gross compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and gross maximum drawdown (MaxDD) as key performance statistics, ignoring monthly portfolio reformation costs. Using end-of-month, dividend-adjusted returns for SACEMS assets during February 2006 through May 2020, we find that: Keep Reading

Home Prices and the Stock Market

Homes typically represent a substantial fraction of investor wealth. Are there reliable relationships between U.S. home prices and the U.S. stock market? For example, does a rising stock market stimulate home prices? Do falling home prices point to offsetting liquidation of equity positions. Do homes effectively diversify equity holdings? Measurements are:

Using these sources, we find that:

Keep Reading

Login
Daily Email Updates
Filter Research
  • Research Categories (select one or more)