Does adding a position take-profit (stop-gain) rule improve the performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) by harvesting some upside volatility? SACEMS each months picks winners from among the a set of...
We have added a “Research Assistant” feature (beta version) to the navigation bar at the top of each page. This feature lets subscribers find topical research from among the 3,800+ posts and 69 pages of...
Does adding a position stop-loss rule improve the performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) by avoiding some downside volatility? SACEMS each months picks winners from among the a set of eight...
There is a new “Strategy Tools” visualization feature under the “Strategies” drop-down menu in the navigation bar at the top of each page. These tools let users explore historical performances of the Simple Asset Class ETF...
Is there a way to amplify the MAX overpricing anomaly (measured as the average of the five highest daily returns for a stock over the past month), which is driven by the desire of some...
How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on space technology/exploration, an arguably hot theme, perform? To investigate, we consider three such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: State Street SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF (ROKT) Procure...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/2/26 through 2/6/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Should investors who believe that the U.S. dollar (USD) is doomed by deficits/debt consider a momentum strategy holding the USD hedge that most recently performed best? To investigate, we test a simple momentum strategy (Winner)...
Are some years of the decade better than others for equity markets? To investigate, we look at average annual returns by year of the decade (xxx0 through xxx9) for the U.S. stock market. Using annual...
The conventional Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE), or P/E10, divides current real S&P 500 Index level by average annual aggregate real index earnings as reported over the prior 10 years. This approach ignores stocks added...
Do optimists dominate the pricing of stocks for firms with unusual/difficult to interpret fundamentals, thereby overpricing them? In his December 2025 paper entitled “Hard to Process: Atypical Firms and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns”,...
Investor mood may affect financial markets. Sports may affect investor mood. The biggest mood-mover among sporting events in the U.S. is likely the National Football League’s Super Bowl. Is the week before the Super Bowl...
We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/26/26 through 1/30/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for February 2026. SACEMS rankings are not very close, but markets are volatile....
One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index...
A subscriber asked about an update of “Simplest Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy?”, which each month holds SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) or iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) depending on which has the...
Does commercial and industrial (C&I) credit fuel business growth and thereby drive the stock market? To investigate, we relate changes in credit standards from the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank...
Do recent daily returns for a stock reliably predict its near-term performance? In their January 2026 paper entitled “A Unified Framework for Anomalies based on Daily Returns”, Nusret Cakici, Christian Fieberg, Gabor Neszveda, Robert Bianchi...
Do “great stock picks” from Forbes beat the market? To investigate, we evaluate stock picks for 2022, 2023, 2024 and via “10 Great Stock Picks for 2022 from Top-Performing Fund Managers”, “20 Great Stock Ideas...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/20/26 through 1/23/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Each year in December, Barron’s publishes its list of the best 10 stocks for the next year. Do these picks on average beat the market? To investigate, we scrape the web to find these lists...
Having been trained by humans on human information, do Large Language Models (LLM) behave like human investors? In their January 2026 paper entitled “Artificially Biased Intelligence: Does AI Think Like a Human Investor?”, Javad Keshavarz,...
Have we entered an era when only the biggest firms can afford the massive investments needed to field hot, globally scalable technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence)? To investigate, we ask Grok to identify the 10 largest...
Past research relating U.S. stock market returns to the party holding the Presidency mostly concludes that Democratic presidents are better for the stock market than Republican presidents. However, Presidents share power conferred by the electorate...