December 23, 2014 - Equity Premium
How big is the stock liquidity premium and does it subsume other variables widely used to estimate future returns? In their December 2014 paper entitled “A Comparative Analysis of Liquidity Measures”, Yuping Huang and Vasilios Sogiakas investigate the relationships of excess (relative to the risk-free rate) stock returns to three pairs of monthly liquidity metrics:
- Transaction cost: (1) average daily absolute bid-ask spread; or, (2) relative spread (average daily absolute spread divided by stock price).
- Trading activity: (3) turnover ratio (shares traded divided by shares outstanding); or, (4) average daily dollar volume.
- Price impact: (5) average absolute daily return divided by dollar volume; or, (6) average daily ratio of absolute return divided by daily turnover ratio.
They also examine the interaction of these liquidity metrics with widely used risk factors (market capitalization or size, book-to-market ratio and momentum) and other predictive variables (price, earnings yield and dividend yield). They base some analyses on average gross returns of equally weighted portfolios reformed monthly by ranking stocks into fifths (quintiles) by prior-month liquidity metrics. Analyses exploring interaction of liquidity metrics with other factors/variables employ multivariate regressions. In grooming/processing data, they exclude stocks with extremely low and high prices, liquidity metrics, factors and predictive variables. Using daily bid-ask spreads during 1991 through 2011 and monthly values of other trading metrics and factors/variables as described above during 1962 through 2011 for a broad (but filtered) sample of U.S. stocks (an average of 2,050 stocks each month), they find that: Keep Reading