Calendar Effects

Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news immediately after being elected and do everything in their power to create good news just before ensuing biennial elections. Are some presidential term cycle years reliably good or bad? If so, do abnormal returns concentrate in certain quarters? Finally, what does the stock market do in the period immediately before and after a national election? Using daily and monthly S&P 500 Index levels from January 1928 through Sep 2022 (about 95 years and 23.7 presidential terms) and focusing on “political quarters” (Feb-Apr, May-Jul, Aug-Oct and Nov-Jan), we find that: Keep Reading

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that track asset classes, such as those used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS), exhibit reliable seasonalities? To check, we look at average return by calendar month for the following nine ETFs:

• SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
• iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
• iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
• iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
• iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD)
• Vanguard REIT (VNQ)
• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
• PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)

Using monthly dividend-adjusted returns for these ETFs over a common sample period during March 2006 (limited by DBC) through August 2022, we find that: Keep Reading

Do morning and afternoon stock returns convey different meanings due to gradual dissipation of information asymmetry among traders during the trading day (as the market digests overnight news)? In their August 2022 paper entitled “A Tale of One Day: Morning Momentum, Afternoon Reversal”, Haoyu Xu and Xiaoneng Zhu investigate differences in implications for reversal and momentum strategies among morning (9:30AM – 11:30AM), midday (11:30AM – 2:00PM) and afternoon  (2:00PM – 4:00PM). Specifically, they:

• For each stock each month, cumulate returns over these three intervals.
• Sort stocks into tenths, or deciles, based either on cumulative returns over the most recent month (for reversal testing) or compounded cumulative returns from 12 months ago to one month ago (for momentum testing) for different combinations of these three intervals.
• Reform various long-short portfolios using extreme deciles to explore the different predictive powers of past morning and afternoon returns.

For reversal tests, they apply equal weighting. For momentum tests, they consider both value and equal weightings. They calculate raw returns, 3-factor (market, size, book-to-market) alphas and 4-factor (adding momentum) alphas as essential performance statistics. They use conventional strategies using full daily returns as benchmarks. Using intraday and daily return data for a broad sample of U.S. common stocks priced at least $5 during 1993 through 2018, they find that:

Keep Reading

Does the U.S. stock market respond predictably to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, typically released between 14:00 and 14:20 EST? In the August 2022 version of their paper entitled “The FOMC Announcement Reversal”, Tommaso Baglioni and Ruy Ribeiro examine the relationship between pre-FOMC announcement returns and post-FOMC announcement returns. Specifically, they test a reversal strategy that buys (sells) E-mini S&P 500 just before announcement at 13:50 EST when the return during the 24 hours before the announcement is negative (positive) and closes the position at the end of the trading day. They buy at the ask and sell at the bid to account for trading frictions. They compute average cumulative return per round trip transaction and Sharpe ratio as average return divided by standard deviation (standardized to reflect one trading day and the number of hours the position is open). They consider two subperiods (October 1997 through March 2011 and April 2011 through January 2020). They also look at interactions of strategy performance with four measures of economic conditions: market uncertainty (VIX), economic policy uncertainty, monetary policy uncertainty and consumer sentiment. Using intraday E-mini S&P 500 prices, exact FOMC announcement release data and measures of economic conditions on FOMC announcement dates during mid-October 1997 through January 2020 (a total of 180 scheduled FOMC announcements), they find that:

Keep Reading

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer vacations, signal any unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from the turn of the month. To investigate the possibility of short-term effects on stock market returns around Labor Day, we analyze the historical behavior of the stock market during the three trading days before and the three trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the S&P 500 Index for 1950 through 2021 (72 observations), we find that: Keep Reading

Over at least the past three decades, 100% or more of the return (0% or negative return) on a wide range of risky assets occurs when markets are closed (open). Is this overnight effect important to investors? In their June 2022 paper entitled “Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies”, Victor Haghani, Vladimir Ragulin and Richard Dewey briefly review the dozen or so papers exploring this effect, mostly focused on broad stock market returns. They then take a closer look at whether the effect applies to individual U.S. stocks and discuss implications for investors. Using results of past research and overnight and intraday prices for selected exchange-traded funds (ETF) and stocks as available since the mid-1990s through May 2022, they find that: Keep Reading

A subscriber asked whether the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect applies to currencies. To investigate, as in the past, we define TOTM as the interval from the close five trading days before to the close four trading days after the last trading day of the month (a total of eight trading days, centered on the monthly close). We measure TOTM returns for the following four exchange-traded funds (ETF):

Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish (UUP)
Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency (FXE)
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy (CYB)

Using daily dividend-adjusted prices for these ETFs from their respective inceptions through mid-June 2022, we find that: Keep Reading

The middle of the year might be a time for funds to dress their windows and investors to review and revise portfolios. The 4th of July celebration might engender optimism among U.S. investors. Are there any reliable patterns in daily U.S. stock market returns around mid-year and the 4th of July? To check, we analyze historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index from five trading days before through trading days after both the end of June and the 4th of July. Using daily closing levels of the index for 1950-2021 (72 years), we find that: Keep Reading

Are there anomalies for U.S. stock market returns around equity option expiration (OE) days (normally the third Friday of each month, but the preceding Thursday when the market is closed on the third Friday)? To investigate, we examine close-to-close S&P 500 Index returns from five trading days before through five trading days after a moderately large sample of OE days. Using daily closing prices for the index during January 1990 through February 2022 (386 OE days), we find that:

Keep Reading

Does the overnight return effect found pervasively among equity markets, as summarized in “Persistence of Overnight/Intraday Equity Market Return Patterns”, also hold for other asset classes? To investigate, we compare open-to-close (O-C) and close-to-open (C-O) average returns, standard deviations of returns and cumulative performances for the exchange-traded funds (ETF) used as asset class proxies in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). Using daily dividend-adjusted opening and closing prices of these ETFs during mid-December 2007 (inception of the youngest ETF) through early March 2022, we find that: Keep Reading