Economic Indicators

In seeking to control interest rates, has the Federal Reserve become less relevant to equity investors? In his September 2007 paper entitled “The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds and 10-Year Treasury Rates: A Conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?”, Daniel Thornton examines the loss of correlation between the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and long-term interest rates in the context of Goodhart’s Law, which states that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Using monthly data for the FFR and the yields for Treasury instruments of various durations over the period 1/83-3/07, he concludes that: Keep Reading

After reviewing our update of the relationship between crude oil price and overall stock market behavior, a reader requested a similar analysis of the relationship between crude oil price and an energy sector Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) such as Energy Select Sector S&P Depository Receipts (XLE). The reader’s hypothesis is that energy ETFs follow crude oil spot price fairly well. Comparing the weekly crude oil spot price for the U.S. with the weekly close for XLE for over the period 1/99-8/07, we find that: Keep Reading

Some market commentators cite the price of crude oil as an important indicator of future stock market behavior. Is expensive crude oil a sign of future inflation or a drag on aggregate corporate earnings, or is it a proxy for general economic strength? Does a local peak (valley) in the price of crude oil portend a falling (rising) overall stock market? Comparing the weekly crude oil spot price for the U.S. with the weekly level of the S&P 500 index for the period 1/97-8/07, we find that… Keep Reading

A reader suggested that stocks may respond to two second order effects in the Consumer Price Index (CPI): (1)trend in monthly CPI changes (monthly inflation rate), as measured by the slope of changes over a few consecutive months; and, (2) volatility of monthly CPI changes, as measured by the standard deviation of changes over a few consecutive months. Testing these effects with CPI data and monthly S&P 500 index closing levels for estimated or actual CPI release dates during January 1990 through June 2007 (210 months), we find that: Keep Reading

A reader notes that many experts are focused on the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury note (T-note) yield, often asserting that such large positive yield shocks are bad for stocks. He asks what the historical data say about the relationship between short-term shocks in T-note yield and future stock returns. Using daily closing T-note yields and daily closing prices for the S&P 500 index since the beginning of 1990, we find that: Keep Reading

What conditions lead to stock market booms and busts, and how does monetary policy relate to boom-bust transitions? In the May 2007 version of their paper entitled “Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms and Busts in the 20th Century”, Michael Bordo, Michael Dueker and David Wheelock examine the relationship between monetary policy and stock market booms/busts in the U.S., U.K. and Germany during the 20th century. They define booms (busts) as periods of at least 36 (24) months from trough to peak (peak to trough) with at least 10% (20%) average annual increase (decrease) in real stock prices. Using monthly inflation-adjusted stock price indexes, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Deterioration over the past decade in the forecasting power of traditional indicators (such as price-dividend and price-earnings ratios) have stimulated searches for better ones, with recent emphasis on macroeconomic variables. Which financial and economic variables best predict stock returns over the short, intermediate and long terms? Is “best” good enough for market timing? In her October 2006 paper entitled “How Well Do Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Predict Stock Returns: Time-series and Cross-sectional Evidence”, Anne-Sofie Reng Rasmussen evaluates the relative performance of a wide range of variables in forecasting excess stock returns (above the one-month T-bill rate) over horizons from one quarter to eight years. Using annual data for periods as long as 1930-2005 and quarterly data for periods as long as 1926-2005, she concludes that: Keep Reading

What kind of economic environment makes a stock market boom? What changes in that environment lead to bust? In their September 2006 paper entitled “When Do Stock Market Booms Occur? The Macroeconomic and Policy Environments of 20th Century Booms”, Michael Bordo and David Wheelock examine the economic and policy conditions that supported equity market booms in ten developed countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States) during the 20th century. Using monthly inflation-adjusted stock prices from these countries, they conclude that: Keep Reading

In their February 2003 paper entitled “Stock Returns, Aggregate Earnings Surprises, and Behavioral Finance”,  Jonathan Lewellen, S. Kothari and Jerold Warner explore the relationships between overall stock market behavior and aggregate corporate earnings, looking for parallels with firm-level price-earnings behavior. Using quarterly data for 1970-2000, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Do certain industries tend to lead or lag stock market cycles? In the November 2004 update of their paper entitled “Do Industries Lead the Stock Market?”, Harrison Hong, Walter Torous and Rossen Valkanov investigate whether returns from some industries predict future returns for the overall stock market. The authors hypothesize that the overall market only gradually recognizes valuable information contained in the returns of specific industries. Using U.S. data for 1946-2002 and international data for 1973-2002, they conclude that: Keep Reading