Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for April 2020 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for April 2020 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF

Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy is a very complex system, with indicators therefore ambiguous and difficult to interpret. To what degree do macroeconomics and the stock market go hand-in-hand, if at all? Do investors/traders: (1) react to economic readings; (2) anticipate them; or, (3) just muddle along, mostly fooled by randomness? These blog entries address relationships between economic indicators and the stock market.

Earnings, Inflation and Stock Returns

In their February 2003 paper entitled “Stock Returns, Aggregate Earnings Surprises, and Behavioral Finance”,  Jonathan Lewellen, S. Kothari and Jerold Warner explore the relationships between overall stock market behavior and aggregate corporate earnings, looking for parallels with firm-level price-earnings behavior. Using quarterly data for 1970-2000, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Market-Leading Industries

Do certain industries tend to lead or lag stock market cycles? In the November 2004 update of their paper entitled “Do Industries Lead the Stock Market?”, Harrison Hong, Walter Torous and Rossen Valkanov investigate whether returns from some industries predict future returns for the overall stock market. The authors hypothesize that the overall market only gradually recognizes valuable information contained in the returns of specific industries. Using U.S. data for 1946-2002 and international data for 1973-2002, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Combining Momentum and Value for Industry Rotation

Value and momentum are two very different equity investing styles, both with many adherents. Neither outperforms the overall market all the time. Is there some systematic way of combining these two approaches to enhance consistency of outperformance in global equity markets? In their March 2006 paper entitled “Generating Excess Returns through Global Industry Rotation”, Geoffrey Loudon and John Okunev examine different investing styles (momentum, value, combination of value and momentum, and growth) to exploit cyclic industry returns, with the U.S. yield curve as the critical economic indicator. Using monthly global prices, dividends, earnings and returns data for 36 industries for 1973-2005, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Should Equity Investors Hope for Good or Bad Economic Forecasts?

Do forecasts for the economy at large predict returns for stock investors? In the September 2005 version of their paper entitled “Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence”, Sean Campbell and Francis Diebold characterize the relationship between expected business conditions (predictions of real growth in GDP six and 12 months ahead) and stock returns. Using half a century (1952-2002) of Livingston Survey expected business conditions results and corresponding measures of expected stock returns, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Bad News is Good News, Except When…

In the August 2004 update of their paper entitled “Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets”, Torben Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis Diebold and Clara Vega investigate the real-time response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to 25 types of U.S. macroeconomic news (such as GDP, PPI, CPI and unemployment rate). They employ actively traded futures as proxies for each of these markets. They measure the degree of surprise in macroeconomic announcements based on the survey-based expectations of market players. Using data from various starting points in the 1990s through the end of 2002, they find that: Keep Reading

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