Economic Indicators

Value and momentum are two very different equity investing styles, both with many adherents. Neither outperforms the overall market all the time. Is there some systematic way of combining these two approaches to enhance consistency of outperformance in global equity markets? In their March 2006 paper entitled “Generating Excess Returns through Global Industry Rotation”, Geoffrey Loudon and John Okunev examine different investing styles (momentum, value, combination of value and momentum, and growth) to exploit cyclic industry returns, with the U.S. yield curve as the critical economic indicator. Using monthly global prices, dividends, earnings and returns data for 36 industries for 1973-2005, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Do forecasts for the economy at large predict returns for stock investors? In the September 2005 version of their paper entitled “Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence”, Sean Campbell and Francis Diebold characterize the relationship between expected business conditions (predictions of real growth in GDP six and 12 months ahead) and stock returns. Using half a century (1952-2002) of Livingston Survey expected business conditions results and corresponding measures of expected stock returns, they conclude that: Keep Reading

In the August 2004 update of their paper entitled “Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets”, Torben Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis Diebold and Clara Vega investigate the real-time response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to 25 types of U.S. macroeconomic news (such as GDP, PPI, CPI and unemployment rate). They employ actively traded futures as proxies for each of these markets. They measure the degree of surprise in macroeconomic announcements based on the survey-based expectations of market players. Using data from various starting points in the 1990s through the end of 2002, they find that: Keep Reading