Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for May 2024 (Final)

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for May 2024 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF

Investing Expertise

Can analysts, experts and gurus really give you an investing/trading edge? Should you track the advice of as many as possible? Are there ways to tell good ones from bad ones? Recent research indicates that the average “expert” has little to offer individual investors/traders. Finding exceptional advisers is no easier than identifying outperforming stocks. Indiscriminately seeking the output of as many experts as possible is a waste of time. Learning what makes a good expert accurate is worthwhile.

The Advised, the Non-advised and Frequent Traders

How do financial advisors affect the investing practices of individual investors? Does their advice decisively improve client performance, or are other factors more explanatory? In their February 2009 paper entitled “The Influence of Financial Advisors on Household Portfolios: A Study on Private Investors Switching to Financial Advice”, Ralf Gerhardt and Andreas Hackethal compare the portfolios and transactions of advised and non-advised German investors to determine the effects of advice. They further decompose the sample of investors to explore whether differences between advised and non-advised arise from the advice per se or from investor socio-demographics or trading frequency. Using portfolio compositions and transactions for over 65,000 German investors during February 2006 through July 2007, including 597 who initiated a relationship with a financial advisor during that period, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Usefulness of Non-U.S. Analyst Stock Recommendations and Earnings Forecasts

Are stock recommendations and earnings forecasts from analysts in markets outside the U.S. useful to investors? In their February 2009 paper entitled “International Evidence on Analyst Stock Recommendations, Valuations, and Returns”, Ran Barniv, Ole-Kristian Hope, Mark Myring and Wayne Thomas examine the usefulness of non-U.S. analyst outputs by testing relationships between: (1) valuation estimates and stock recommendations; (2) valuation estimates and future excess returns; and, (3) stock recommendations and future stock returns. They segment results according to level of investor legal protection within the analyst’s country, as indicated by assessments of rule of law, judicial system efficiency and corruption. Using earnings forecasts, stock recommendations and monthly stock return data for 30 countries over the period January 1993 to May 2007, they conclude that: Keep Reading

The Advised Versus the Self-directed

Do individuals who use investment advisors achieve higher returns than those who do not? Two closely related papers entitled “Investment Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of January 2009 by Marc Kramer and “The Impact of Financial Advisors on Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of March 2012 by Marc Kramer and Robert Lensink address this question. Using monthly portfolio returns for thousands of advised and self-directed individual Dutch investors during April 2003 through August 2007 (52 months), they conclude that: Keep Reading

S&P 500 Quarterly Aggregate Earnings Estimate Evolutions

Several readers have inquired or commented about the accuracy of  Standard and Poor’s quarterly S&P 500 earnings estimates. How accurate have they been? Since late 2005, we have tracked the evolving bottoms-up S&P 500 year-over-year quarterly operating earnings growth estimates for 2006-2009 at roughly biweekly intervals. During the early part of this period, we recorded the average of the publicly available Standard and Poor’s and Reuters earnings estimates (generally similar). During the latter part, we recorded only the Standard and Poor’s estimates. Using evolving earnings forecasts for 2006-2009, we find that: Keep Reading

New Funds Outperform?

Do new mutual funds bring fresh alpha to the marketplace, outperforming until the market catches up and extinguishes it? In their August 2008 paper entitled “Performance and Characteristics of Mutual Fund Starts”, Aymen Karoui and Iwan Meier examine the performance and portfolio characteristics of U.S. equity mutual funds launched during 1991-2005. Using monthly return, quarterly holdings and fund characteristics/fee data for 1,374 U.S. domestic equity mutual funds and 828 fund starts over this period, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Hedge Fund Outperformance: Skill or Liquidity Risk?

Can outperforming hedge funds readily convert assets into cash for fund investors? In their October 2008 paper entitled “Hedge Fund Alphas: Do They Reflect Managerial Skills or Mere Compensation for Liquidity Risk Bearing?”, Rajna Gibson and Songtao Wang study the effect of market-wide liquidity risk (the time and costs of transforming a given position into cash and vice versa) on the performance of various hedge fund portfolio strategies. The strategies they consider are: Convertible Arbitrage, Dedicated Short Bias, Emerging Markets, Equity Market Neutral, Event-Driven, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Global Macro, Long/Short Equity Hedge, Managed Futures and Multi-Strategy. Using performance data for a broad sample of live (2,743) and defunct (1,955) hedge funds during 1994-2006 and contemporaneous measures of market-wide (U.S. equities) liquidity, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Sector Rotation vs. Stock Picking

Do expert investors outperform more by being in the right sectors (top-down economic analysis) or by picking the right stocks (bottom-up firm analysis)? In their November 2008 paper entitled “Impact of Sector Versus Security Choice on Equity Portfolios”, Jason Hall and Ben McVicar investigate the relative impact on equity mutual fund returns of industry sector allocation versus individual stock picks. They perform this investigation by constructing sector-neutral and stocks-within-sector-neutral benchmarks. Using data for 3,350 U.S. equity mutual funds over the period 1980-2005 (113,614 fund-quarter observations), they conclude that: Keep Reading

Combining Short Interest and Analyst Recommendations

Are short sellers and expert equity analysts generally in synch or out of synch? What does it mean when short sellers and analysts disagree? In their September 2008 paper entitled “Trading Against the Prophets: Using Short Interest to Profit from Analyst Recommendations”, Michael Drake, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson investigate whether investors/traders can earn abnormal returns by trading on information provided by expert sell-side analysts (recommendations and recommendation changes) and short sellers (short interest). In their tests, they rebalance portfolios quarterly, hold for six months and adjust returns for firm size. Using a large sample of quarterly return, short interest and analyst recommendation data for the period 1994-2006 period, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Evaluating Investing/Trading Advisory Services

We occasionally get requests from readers to review the claims stated by an online investing/trading advisory service or investment manager. Most such web sites do not provide enough information to perform a quantitative review. Here is compilation of key points to consider in evaluating the claims of advisory services: Keep Reading

Outperformance of Distinctive Hedge Fund Strategies?

Exceptional performance can stem from: (1) doing something others are doing, but doing it better; and (2) doing something different. Do hedge funds that have innovative strategies (do something different) systematically outperform? In their August 2008 paper entitled “Strategy Distinctiveness and Hedge Fund Performance”, Ashley Wang and Lu Zheng construct a “Hedge Fund Strategy Distinctiveness Index” (SDI) and test the predictive power of this index for future hedge fund returns. Specifically, they define SDI as [1 – R-squared] from a two-year regression of the returns for an individual hedge fund against the average returns of funds with the same investing style. This index represents the percentage of variation in a fund’s returns not explained by the variation of its peer’s returns. Using monthly return data for 2767 live and dead hedge funds over the period January 1994 through June 2007, they conclude that: Keep Reading

Daily Email Updates
Filter Research
  • Research Categories (select one or more)