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Investing Research Articles

92 Research Articles

Combining and Exploiting Stock Market Forecasting Variables

Does the set of variables that have the strongest correlations with subsequent U.S. stock market returns over the prior decade usefully predict market returns out-of-sample? In the July 2015 draft of their paper entitled “A Practitioner’s Defense of Return Predictability”, Blair Hull and Xiao Qiao apply this correlation screening approach to a set of 20 published stock market forecasting variables encompassing… Keep Reading

Demographic Headwind for U.S. Stock Market?

Will disinvestment of the baby boom generation retard U.S. equities? In their August 2011 letter entitled “Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?”, flagged by a reader, Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel revisit the relationship between U.S. age demographics and U.S. equity valuation as indicated by the lagged price-earnings ratio (P/E). They calculate P/E based… Keep Reading

Individual Risk Tolerance Under the Hood

…financial advisors may be able to improve advisee satisfaction by refining the typical approach to risk tolerance measurement and accommodation. The self-advised can apply such refinement to themselves.

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 5/10/21 – 5/14/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/10/21 through 5/14/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Review of IntelligentValue’s Retracement-Value Portfolio

…the extraordinary performance claimed by IntelligentValue for the Retracement-Value portfolio is likely due to a combination of early good luck and a favorable assumption about trade prices. Investors/traders considering such active trading services should carefully evaluate their trading costs/frictions.

Do TIPS Work?

Are Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), for which the Treasury adjusts the principal based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U), effective as an inflation hedge? In their September 2009 paper entitled “A TIPS Scorecard: Are TIPS Accomplishing What They Were Supposed to Accomplish? Can They Be Improved?”, Michelle Barnes, Zvi Bodie,… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/6/23 – 11/10/23

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/6/23 through 11/10/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Bob Brinker’s Market Timing

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Bob Brinker, mostly since August 2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, augmented separately by a few items from other sources. Mr. Brinker is editor of the Marketimer newsletter, which “covers stock market timing, federal reserve policy, specific mutual fund recommendations,… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 1/11/21 – 1/15/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/11/21 through 1/15/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Diversification for “Peak” Performance

…diversification produces “peak” performance by collapsing the probability of performance around the mean. With it, you will seldom fly high, or crash and burn.