Investing Research Articles

 A reader suggested that we evaluate the stock market forecasts of Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research. The TrimTabs perspective “relies on the insight that price [of equities in aggregate] is a function of supply and demand and has nothing to do with value.” The predictions/recommendations evaluated here extend as far back… Keep Reading

…evidence indicates that art in aggregate: (1) has delivered a competitive mean return, but with extremely high volatility, over the past 24 years; (2) is not a good hedge for stocks; and, (3) generally offers diversification benefits to a portfolio of asset classes.

…evidence indicates that positive (negative) aggregate earnings surprises portend higher (lower) future inflation/discount rates, and therefore negative (positive) future stock market returns and increases (decreases) in bond yields.

…the stocks of companies unadmired by the ostensibly well-informed may well outperform the stocks of the companies admired.

…evidence from simple tests on available data supports a belief that Timothy Sykes can identify pump-and-dump patterns in real time with economically meaningful consistency, but scalability is multiply constrained such that his subscribers may not be able to mimic his trades reliably. Niche constraints may preclude exploitation by large traders, a large group of small traders and funds.

…investors may find Put Option Strategies for Smarter Trading useful as a source of information on how put option strategies work, but they should be skeptical that any examples it presents on strategy profitability are reliably achievable in actual trading.

Inserting daily CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) history for 12/12/05-1/13/10 into the model generates no breakout signals over the four-year sample period.

There is some research relevant to your question based on mutual/hedge fund and fund manager data. See…

…evidence indicates that buy-write strategies generally underperform their underlying stocks in Australia.

…evidence from detailed, but somewhat aged data, indicates that a typical futures speculator makes money by taking a position opposite that of hedgers in aggregate.