Investing Research Articles

Generalizations from the body of equity price trend research are: (1) stocks tend to exhibit short-term reversal, intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversion; and, (2) small capitalization and high-volatility stocks tend to exhibit the strongest momentum. What about the combination of size and volatility? In the September 2010 version of his paper entitled “Do Momentum and… Keep Reading

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit interest rate trend changes derived from Federal Reserve policy pivots to boost net risk-adjusted returns from bond holdings.

Reader Mike Korell of ChartsEdge suggested an evaluation of his own S&P 500 Index forecasts for inclusion in Gurus. These “stock market forecasts are based on cycle data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program. This use of artificial intelligence reduces the effect of personal bias and allows the simultaneous cycle analysis of… Keep Reading

…investors should assess and compare asset classes based on dynamic estimates of respective risk premiums (implied returns derived from current prices and estimated cash flows) to guide asset class allocation and market timing.

…estimates of the reward for risking equity investment vary with sample period, market and calculation method. Estimates tend to be higher when GDP is volatile and nominal interest rates are low.

…evidence from straightforward tests on a fairly small sample does not support a belief that Jim Rohrbach’s timing approach (including service fees) beats simple benchmarks.

…evidence from analysis of market outperformance streaks among actively managed U.S. mutual funds indicates that fund manager skill is material to fund performance.

…evidence indicates that 3-month rolling VIX futures contracts may be the preferred way for investors to hedge stock market positions against crashes.

…evidence from an array of tests does not support beliefs that CFA designation, MBA degree and level of experience are critical success factors for investment managers.

…while The Gleason Report’s Stock Value Model has performed well in real time (as claimed) since 1999, the performance sample is very small for reliable inference in terms of number of signals, and the most recent signals have poor outcomes.