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Investing Research Articles

3510 Research Articles

Methods and Results for ValueInvestorsClub.com Members

…the professional investors at ValueInvestorsClub.com on average successfully identify and exploit value opportunities by focusing mostly on mismatches between stock price and intrinsic value.

Do Stock Index Put-Call Ratio Trend Reversals Anticipate Trend Reversals of the Index Itself?

…evidence from a few tests does not support a belief that trend reversals in the 10-day lagging average S&P 500 index put-call ratio predicts reversals in the level of the S&P 500 index.

S&P 500 Quarterly Aggregate Earnings Estimate Evolutions

…recent S&P 500 aggregate bottoms-up earnings growth estimates have often been highly variable and substantially inaccurate.

The Annual Business Week Stock Market Forecasts

…investors should not expect the typical “expert” to outperform a simple extrapolation of the long-term trend in forecasting the level of a broad stock market index one year ahead.

Big Winners from Stock Buybacks?

…evidence for the management compensation (rather than reward for shareholders) motivation for open market stock buybacks is mounting, causing investors to pay less attention to buybacks.

“It’s the P/E, Stupid!”

…stock market P/E and presidential approval rating are significantly intertwined.

Best Kind of Stocks to Pick?

…stock pickers may want to focus on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility.

New Funds Outperform?

…new mutual funds appear to enjoy initial outperformance by taking on innovative risk.

An Alternative Measure of Investment Risk

…gain-loss spread (expected gain minus expected loss) is a simple, intuitive measure of investment risk at least as useful as standard deviation.

Kicking the Body of the Fed Model

…investors seem to have left the Fed model for dead.