Investing Research Articles

Are there intractable weaknesses of historical inference as a tool to predict the behaviors of financial markets? In the May 2015 draft of his article entitled “Beyond Backtesting: The Historical Evidence Trap”, Ulrich Hammerich briefly describes four weaknesses of backtesting more difficult to address than overfitting/snooping, neglect of trading frictions and data quality. He calls these weaknesses the technological trap, the market efficiency… Keep Reading

Is there strong evidence for price momentum within and across all major asset classes over the long run? In the May 2015 version of their paper entitled “215 Years of Global Multi-Asset Momentum: 1800-2014 (Equities, Sectors, Currencies, Bonds, Commodities and Stocks)”, Christopher Geczy and Mikhail Samonov examine the momentum effect for very long price histories within and across major asset class… Keep Reading

Can investors exploit stock repurchase and issuance activity to predict market reaction to the next firm earnings release? In the May 2015 version of their paper entitled “Are Earnings Predictable?”, Shahram Amini and Vijay Singal test whether firm executives take advantage of superior information to time repurchases (issuances) of stock just before unexpectedly good (bad) earnings… Keep Reading

Smart beta strategies weight stocks according to one or a few historically predictive factors such as value, size, momentum or volatility rather than market capitalization. What are the cautions for investing in smart beta funds? In their April 2015 paper entitled “Smart Beta: Too Good to be True?”, Bruce Jacobs and Kenneth Levy critique the belief that smart beta strategies… Keep Reading

Do factors that predict returns in U.S. stock data also work on global stock markets at the country level? In the May 2015 version of their paper entitled “Do Quantitative Country Selection Strategies Really Work?”, Adam Zaremba and Przemysław Konieczka test 16 country stock market selection strategies based on relative market value, size, momentum, quality and volatility…. Keep Reading

Is intermediate-term asset class momentum a useful way to generate inputs (return, volatility and correlation forecasts) for a multi-class mean-variance optimization strategy? In their May 2015 paper entitled “Momentum and Markowitz: a Golden Combination”, Wouter Keller, Adam Butler and Ilya Kipnis test the effectiveness of using intermediate-term lookback intervals (1 to 12 months) to generate monthly long-only mean-variance optimized portfolios. They argue… Keep Reading

What is the best way to do asset price trend analysis? Two recent papers address this question. In the May 2015 version of their paper entitled “Which Trend is Your Friend?”, Ari Levine and Lasse Pedersen compare time series (intrinsic or absolute) momentum, moving average (fast and slow) crossovers and other trend indicators to determine the best way… Keep Reading

Does the interaction of paradigmatic indicators of optimism (lumber demand) and pessimism (gold demand) tell investors when to take risk and when to avoid risk? In their May 2015 paper entitled “Lumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold: Offense and Defense in Active Portfolio Management”, Charles Bilello and Michael Gayed examine the recent relative performance of lumber (a proxy… Keep Reading

What is the best way to implement a value strategy for U.S. stocks? In their May 2015 paper entitled “Optimizing Value”, Ran Leshem, Lisa Goldberg and Alan Cummings investigate how the choice of value metric and implementation approach affect value strategy performance. They first compare book value-to-price ratio (B/P) and earnings-to-price ratio (E/P) based on returns for portfolios of the top 30% of stocks… Keep Reading

Are there gradual steps toward a fundamental stock index that work just as well? In their April 2015 draft paper entitled “Decomposing Fundamental Indexation”, Gregg Fisher, Ronnie Shah and Sheridan Titman compare fundamental indexing strategies to strategies that tilt a market index toward high fundamental-to-price stocks. Fundamental indexing strategies weight stocks by firm fundamentals instead of market capitalizations, ignoring any information in stock… Keep Reading