Investing Research Articles

Do patterns formed by Japanese candlesticks, which summarize asset price behavior with a candle and two shadows indicating open-high-low-close prices over a given interval, work as intraday technical trading signals? In their August 2012 paper entitled “The Intraday Performance of Market Timing Strategies and Trading Systems Based on Japanese Candlesticks”, Matthieu Duvinage, Paolo Mazza and Mikael Petitjean investigate the power… Keep Reading

How well do trend-following rules work when applied to the S&P 500 Index? In the March 2012 version of their paper entitled “Breaking into the Blackbox: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: The Case of the S&P 500”, Steve Thomas, James Seaton, Andrew Clare and Peter Smith evaluate a variety of simple daily… Keep Reading

Is it possible to determine when long-term stock market reversion is imminent? In their August 2012 paper entitled “Long-Term Return Reversal: Evidence from International Market Indices”, Mirela Malina and Graham Bornholt compare the performances of a conventional contrarian strategy that considers only long-term past returns to that of a “late-stage” contrarian strategy that buys (sells) long-term… Keep Reading

In a series of emails, Jim Rohrbach, president of Investment Models, Inc., expressed disagreement with the findings of “Jim Rohrbach’s Technical Timing Approach” and requested removal of the review. So that readers can assess the basis of his request, here are the verbatim  emails, with raw links replaced by descriptive links:

How should investors view the predictability of stock market returns and volatility? In sections 5 and 6 of the July 2012 version of his draft chapter entitled “Equity Market Level”, Andrew Ang examines the predictability of the equity risk premium and equity market volatility. He also addresses the exploitability of any predictive power found. Using… Keep Reading

What is growth investing, and how well does it work? How can investors enhance this investment style? In his July 2012 paper entitled “Growth Investing: Betting on the Future?”, Aswath Damodaran examines different approaches to growth investing: focusing on companies with small market capitalization; playing initial public offerings (IPO); seeking growth at a reasonable price (GARP);… Keep Reading

Does the conventional wisdom of avoiding stocks during May through October work in recent years? In their July 2012 paper entitled “‘Sell in May and Go Away’ Just Won’t Go Away”, Sandro Andrade, Vidhi Chhaochharia and Michael Fuerst test the sell-in-May anomaly (or Halloween effect) based on data unambiguously available only after publication of the… Keep Reading

Does P/E10, current real (inflation-adjusted) level of a stock market index divided by associated average real earnings over the last ten years, usefully predict stock market returns for developed stock markets other than the U.S.? In their March 2012 paper entitled “Value Matters: Predictability of Stock Index Returns”, Natascia Angelini, Giacomo Bormetti, Stefano Marmi and Franco Nardini test… Keep Reading

Does P/E10, current real (inflation-adjusted) level of a stock market index divided by associated average real earnings over the last ten years, usefully predict stock market returns for non-U.S. markets? In the July 2012 revision of his paper entitled “Does the Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets?”, Joachim Klement assesses the validity of P/E10 as a long-term stock market… Keep Reading

…evidence from simple tests does not support a belief that investor/trader interest in stocks and funds as measured by normalized Google search volumes can help predict future returns.