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3495 Research Articles

Rise of the Machines? Attack of the Clones?

…only about 20% of all hedge funds have produced after-fee returns that clearly beat those of statistical replicants that mechanically trade a basket of liquid futures contracts.

Bear Claus

As the esteemed, erudite chorus of the downside constantly reminds us, Bear Claus…

The Quarterly Earnings Forecast Walk-Down

…analysts tend to walk their earnings forecasts down as release of actuals approaches, and this walk-down effect is stronger for analysts that have good relationships with management.

The Diversity and Persistence of Quacks

…naive customers for services with outcomes for which it is hard to distinguish skill from luck will attract and sustain a diverse set of quacks.

Buy Stocks of Companies Experts Hate?

…the stocks of companies least admired by the ostensibly well-informed may well outperform the stocks of the companies most admired.

Hedge Funds Versus Mutual Funds

…the small positive alpha of hedge funds in aggregate is likely to move toward the negative alpha of the mutual fund industry in the coming years.

Aggregate Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns

Is aggregate investor sentiment a useful trading indicator? For what kinds of stocks is sentiment trading most likely to work? In their December 2006 paper entitled “Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market”, Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler summarize a top down approach to addressing these questions, focusing on the measurement of aggregate sentiment and its… Keep Reading

A Bear’s Perspective on a Bull Market?

When the market trend challenges their beliefs, what do we hear from market “experts?”

Review of the Financial Forecast Center’s Forecasts

The Financial Forecast Center (FFC) forecasts the average value by month for the S&P 500 index for the current month and the next five months , including fairly large error ranges for 50% and 90% confidence levels. FFC’s “forecasts are generated in-house using artificial intelligence. The forecast models are 100% quantitative and use a global,… Keep Reading

Why Rational Asset Pricing Models Don’t Work Well

…the authors find that both market friction and investor irrationality play substantial roles in the pricing of stocks.