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3503 Research Articles

A 12-Month Cycle for Stock Returns?

…there is a tendency for stocks worldwide to reprise their monthly return behavior every 12 months, with intracycle reversals, over periods of many years. Results suggest calendar-connected market structures.

The Size Effect in Up and Down Markets

…a small-stock buy-and-hold approach benefits fully from upside volatility (beta) but does not suffer the entire penalty of downside volatility.

Why Gurus Go to Extremes

…forecasters trying to beat other forecasters tend to take extreme public positions that reflect the motivational bias of competition. An investor considering the public forecasts of gurus should probably shift asserted probabilities away from 0% and 100% toward 50%.

Testing Benjamin Graham Out of Sample

…Benjamin Graham-style value investing still works but is more difficult to execute than in the past because severe undervaluation has become rarer.

Shark Attacks?

…it appears that some short selling is manipulative, seeking to scare other traders out of their holdings during sharp but temporary engineered price drops.

The Ignored-by-the-MSM (Information Risk) Premium?

…there is an “information risk premium” such that stocks not covered by the news media yield significantly higher future returns than stocks heavily covered, even after accounting for other widely used risk factors.

Hedge Fund Stock Picking and Trade Timing

…hedge fund managers seem to be no better at long-equity investing than mutual fund managers; they do not outperform the market.

The Buyback Indicator Still Going Strong?

…share repurchase announcements persist as good indicators of stock undervaluation, most significantly amplified by poor returns over the prior six months.

Whose Sentiment Matters, and for What Horizon?

…the sentiment of institutional (private) investors probably has some (no) value in predicting stock market returns over a six-month horizon.

Enhancing the Value Premium Via P/E Analysis

Reader Richard Beddard, editor of Interactive Investor, flagged a series of three studies by Keith Anderson and Chris Brooks on approaches to enhancing the value premium via empirical analysis of the price-earnings ratio (P/E) calculated with lagged earnings. One study seeks to optimize value indication based on the extent and weighting of historical earnings used… Keep Reading