Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for July 2024 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for July 2024 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF
Filter Research

Investing Research Articles

3539 Research Articles

Crude Oil Price and Stock Returns

…while a dramatic move up (down) in the price of crude oil represents a modest near-term headwind (tailwind) for the overall stock market, oil price is generally not a good predictor of stock market behavior.

The Out-of-Country Experiences of Individual U.S. Investors

…international diversification as implemented by individual U.S. investors on average neither compensates for bad investing/trading practices nor dramatically enhances good ones. While sophisticated investors generally improve returns and (especially) reduce portfolio volatility via positions in foreign equity funds, underperforming investors tend to underutilize or misuse foreign holdings.

Is 40% Per Month Shorting Index Puts a Fair Return?

…investors are willing to pay very high premiums, perhaps irrationally high, to insure against large losses in their stock portfolios. Sellers of this insurance can earn high average returns.

The “Double 9-to-1 Up Day” Signal

…double 9-to-1 up day events may reliably signal abnormal short-term returns, but designing a system to exploit such rare and unpredictable signals is problematic.

Thrill Factor: The Stock Market as Amusement Park?

…game-like trading-enabled visual abstractions of the stock market may encourage individuals to see the market as amusement and treat trading like “edgework,” wherein experiencing anticipated risk becomes an end in itself.

Does the Bullish Percent Index Predict Market Direction?

…weaknesses in the methodology of this study substantially undercut its conclusion that the average Bullish Percent across sectors is very useful for predicting stock returns.

Finding the Sources and Methods of Financial Expertise in a Haystack

…the difference between expert and non-expert performance in investing and financial forecasting is small, making it difficult to discover the nature of financial expertise. Tests of expertise must be realistic.

The Logic of Valuation-motivated Short Sellers

…fundamental analysis (especially accrual-related indication of poor earnings quality) helps valuation-motivated short sellers identify stocks likely to experience reversal of strong past returns.

An International Test of Share Buyback and Secondary Offering Effects on Stock Returns

…in international markets, secondary share offerings reliably predict poor future stock returns, but share buybacks predict good future returns only for small firms.

Stock Returns After T-bill Yield Shocks

…evidence does not support a model of funds flowing predictably back and forth between stocks and T-bills as investors overreact and correct to perceived crises.