Investing Research Articles

Do annual stock market swing returns swing around their average like a pendulum? In the November update of his 2022 paper entitled “Periodic Structure of Equity Market Annual Returns and Their Predictability”, Daniel Pinelis investigates whether annual returns of the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index exhibit reliable periodicity. Specifically, he models an… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/21/22 through 11/25/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Based on high return correlation with the S&P 500 Index and strong past performance of the health care sector, a subscriber suggested replacing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) with iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). To investigate, we compare performance statistics for SACEMS Top 1, equal-weighted… Keep Reading

In response to the U.S. stock market timing backtest in “Usefulness of P/E10 as Stock Market Return Predictor”, a subscriber suggested combining a 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) technical signal with a P/E10 (or Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, CAPE) fundamental signal. Specifically, we test: SMA10 – bullish/in stocks (bearish/in cash) when prior-month stock index level… Keep Reading

Does breadth of equity sector performance predict overall stock market return? To investigate, we relate next-month stock market return to sector breadth (number of sectors with positive past returns) over lookback intervals ranging from 1 to 12 months. We consider the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) offered as Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR):… Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested implementing several Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) asset class proxies with allocations consisting of one third triple-leveraged (3X) versions of the proxies and two thirds cash, thereby accruing the targeted risk asset returns plus some return on cash. Specifically: Whenever SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is a winner, implement… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/14/22 through 11/18/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is option gamma, which indicates how aggressively option market makers must trade underlying stocks to hedge their option positions, a systematic driver of those stock returns? In his October 2022 paper entitled “Option Gamma and Stock Returns”, Amar Soebhag investigates the relationship between option gamma for individual stocks and future returns of those stocks. He… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/7/22 through 11/11/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked whether the correlation between returns on stocks and bonds is elevated when inflation is above 5%, such that equities and fixed income offer little diversification protection. To investigate, we calculate the U.S. overall inflation rate from monthly values of the consumer price index over the prior year to find months with the… Keep Reading