Investing Research Articles

Is conventional wisdom that aggregate retail investor sentiment is a contrary indicator of future stock market return correct? To investigate, we examine the sentiment expressed by members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) via a weekly survey of members. This survey asks AAII members each week (Thursday through Wednesday): “Do you feel the… Keep Reading

“Stock Size and Excess Stock Portfolio Growth” finds that an equal-weighted portfolio of the (each day) 1,000 largest U.S. stocks beats its market capitalization-weighted counterpart by about 2% per year. However, the underlying research does not account for portfolio rebalancing costs and may not be representative of other stock universes. Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that… Keep Reading

In times of economic uncertainty, traditional safe haven assets (bonds and gold) have often failed. Is there a more robust safe haven approach? In his July 2025 paper entitled “Defense First: A Multi-Asset Tactical Model for Adaptive Downside Protection”, Thomas Carlson introduces the Defense First portfolio, which employs four macro-hedging assets: iShares 20+ Year Treasury… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/21/25 through 7/25/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Why not select and weight stocks in a growth portfolio using only firm growth fundamentals rather than variables that depend on stock price? In their July 2025 paper entitled “Fundamental Growth”, Robert Arnott, Chris Brightman, Campbell Harvey, Que Nguyen and Omid Shakernia investigate performance of stocks exhibiting growth in fundamentals such as sales, gross profit… Keep Reading

The value of holdings in passive (capitalization-weighted, index tracking) U.S. equity funds now exceeds that in active U.S. equity funds. In their May 2025 paper entitled “Passive Aggressive: The Risks of Passive Investing Dominance”, Chris Brightman and Campbell Harvey explore implications of the dramatic growth in passive investment strategies, including loss of diversification and mispricing…. Keep Reading

Do exchange-traded funds selecting stocks based on environmental, social, and governance characteristics (ESG ETF) typically offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of eight ESG ETFs, all currently available, to those of simple and liquid benchmark ETFs, as follows: iShares MSCI USA ESG Select ETF (SUSA), with SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) as… Keep Reading

Do term structures of commodity futures contract series shift in an exploitably predictable way? In their May 2025 paper entitled “Short-Term Basis Reversal”, Alberto Rossi, Yingguang Zhang and Yandi Zhu examine relationships between the return spread between adjacent (especially first-minus-second) maturity commodity futures contracts and future returns on these contracts. They consider both cross-sectional and… Keep Reading

Is aggregate net U.S. public company stock buyback activity a useful predictor of U.S. stock market return? To investigate, we relate the quarterly FRED Security Repurchase Agreements; Nonfinancial Corporate Business series (buybacks) to quarterly S&P 500 Index (SP500) returns. This FRED series tracks dollar values of aggregate net stock buybacks by nonfinancial corporations. Specifically, we… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/14/25 through 7/18/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.