Investing Research Articles

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting for exploring target entry prices for specific stocks? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to...

“Meme Stocks Over the Long Run” finds that meme stock portfolios generate attractive gross returns in recent years. Can investors exploit that finding via an exchange-traded fund (ETF)? To investigate, we look at MEME, an...

Is the meme stock phenomenon new, or is it a persistent feature of stock markets made visible only recently via social media? In his July 2026 paper entitled “A Century of Meme Stocks: The Modern,...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/3/26 through 8/7/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

 “Classic Research: Demography and the Stock Market” and “Demographic Headwind for U.S. Stock Market?” look at interactions between U.S. age demographics and U.S. stock market behavior. Predictions in these papers generally failed by forecasting a...

How material are crypto-asset trading frictions? In their June 2026 paper entitled “The ‘Actual Retail Price’ of Crypto Trades”, Dominik Rösch, Thomas Shohfi, Jenny Stanco and Michael Walz execute several hundred real crypto-asset trades to...

Trading Calendar presents full-year and monthly cumulative performance profiles for the overall stock market (S&P 500 Index) based on its average daily behavior. How much do the corresponding monthly behaviors of the various size and...

Trading Calendar presents full-year and monthly cumulative performance profiles for the overall U.S. stock market (proxied by the S&P 500 Index) based on average daily behavior. Do monthly behaviors of U.S. stock market sectors deviate...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as stock market forecasters? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT,...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/27/26 through 7/31/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for August 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS...

How should global investors assess country sovereign bond and equity risks? In his July 2026 paper entitled “Country Risk: Determinants, Measures and Implications – The 2026 Edition”, Aswath Damodaran examines country risk from multiple perspectives....

“Stock Size and Excess Stock Portfolio Growth” finds that an equal-weighted portfolio of the (each day) 1,000 largest U.S. stocks beats its market capitalization-weighted counterpart by about 2% per year. However, the underlying research does...

Do U.S. business applications, based on Employer Identification Number (EIN) applications associated with new businesses, predict future economic activity and therefore stock market returns? To investigate, we relate changes in both seasonally adjusted (SA) and...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models (LLM) useful to investors for trading stock and bond market daily directions? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of...

Do exchange-traded funds selecting stocks based on environmental, social, and governance characteristics (ESG ETF) typically offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of eight ESG ETFs, all currently available, to those of simple...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/20/26 through 7/24/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The four iShares Core Asset Allocation exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer exposures to U.S. stocks, global stocks and bonds semiannually rebalanced to fixed weights, as follows. iShares Core Conservative Allocation (AOK) – 30% stocks and 70%...

How do different asset classes interact with the Japanese yen-U.S. dollar exchange rate? To investigate, we consider relationships between Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) and the exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in the...

How do different asset classes interact with euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate? To investigate, we consider relationships between Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency (FXE) and the exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in the Simple Asset...

How do different asset classes interact with U.S. dollar valuation? To investigate, we consider relationships between Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) and the exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies used in the...

What happens when investors largely ignore their stock holdings over intervals of one, five and ten years? In his June 2026 paper entitled “Returns to ‘Do-Nothing’ Portfolios”, Hendrik Bessembinder studies returns to “do-nothing” portfolios constructed...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/13/26 through 7/17/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...