Investing Research Articles

Does the U.S. stock market have a predictable pattern of returns around ends of calendar quarters? Do funds deploy cash to bid stocks up at quarter ends to boost portfolio values in quarterly reports (with...

How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with inflation as measured by monthly change in the not seasonally adjusted, all-items consumer price index (CPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? To investigate,...

Having iteratively compared the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) with a fixed lookback interval to SACEMS with a VIX-based variable lookback interval over several years, we are dropping the former and adopting the...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/8/26 through 9/11/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little higher than (slightly lower than) forecasted.

One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of a lookback interval to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)...

A subscriber suggested adding a simple 1-month or 3-month momentum filter to the BGSV portfolio, which each month rebalances to equal weight the following three very risky assets: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), an indirect...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting with regard to identifying U.S. election investment implications? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to...

A subscriber asked whether the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect applies to currencies. To investigate, as in the past, we define TOTM as the interval from the close five trading days before to the close four trading...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/31/26 through 9/4/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Does the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, work across a broad set of asset classes. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the following 10...

A reader inquired whether the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, works for U.S. stock market sectors. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the...

In “Methodology Changes”, we noted implementation of an “Investing Research Sweep” via Claude to mitigate a markedly lower perceived signal-to-noise ratio from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). In this follow-up, we ask our artificial intelligence...

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer distractions, signal unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for September 2026. Past returns for the top assets are closely bunched, so...

How should investors think about strategies featured as attractive by researchers and investment advisors? In his August 2026 paper entitled “Test Everything, Publish Both Results: A Protocol That Cuts Backtest False Positives from 37% to...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/24/26 through 8/28/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber requested measurement of a “premium” associated with U.S. stocks relative to those of other developed markets by looking at the difference in returns between the following two exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500...

How might an investor construct a portfolio of very risky assets? To investigate, we revisit ideas first considered six years ago: First, diversify with monthly rebalancing of: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), an indirect Bitcoin...

Is the proprietary Goldman Sachs Panic Index, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very high (very low), useful for market timing? Because the data series for the index is not...

Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? Because the data series for this...

Does economic growth logically and reliably anchor asset class returns? In his July 2026 paper entitled “A General, Scientific Unified Theory of Economic Growth, Asset Valuation and Return: A Common Necessary Constant Evidence for a...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/17/26 through 8/21/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, three available and one dead, to those for a monthly...