Investing Research Articles

Does the term structure of crude oil futures predict stock market returns? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Do Oil Futures Prices Predict Stock Returns?”, I-Hsuan Chiang and Keener Hughen examine the ability of crude oil futures prices to predict U.S. stock market returns. They identify the first three principal components of the nearest six oil futures… Keep Reading

Is a passive investor one who holds all securities in their respective market capitalization weights, or one who never trades? In his October 2016 paper entitled “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”, Lasse Pedersen challenges the proposition that active trading is a zero sum game that produces an average gross return equal to that realized by passive investors…. Keep Reading

Do global equity funds generate alpha after accounting for both equity and currency factors? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Global Equity Fund Performance Evaluation with Equity and Currency Style Factors”, David Gallagher, Graham Harman, Camille Schmidt and Geoff Warren measure the performance of global equity funds based on their quarterly holdings after adjusting for market return, six widely… Keep Reading

How do moving averages work for timing asset prices, and how do different kinds of moving averages work differently? In his October 2016 paper entitled “Moving Averages for Market Timing”, Valeriy Zakamulin presents in three chapters: (1) financial series trend detection and turning point identification using moving averages; (2) the mathematics and properties of moving averages, with focus on… Keep Reading

Are commodity futures an attractive asset class over the long run? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Commodities for the Long Run”, Ari Levine, Yao Hua Ooi and Matthew Richardson analyze commodity futures prices extending as far back as 1877. Their perspective is that futures price reflects both foregone interest and cost of storage for holding a commodity, with these costs potentially… Keep Reading

Do short sellers who publicly attack their targets affect stock prices? How do they choose their targets? In his October 2016 paper entitled “Activist Short-Selling”, Wuyang Zhao studies short sellers who publish adverse research on and/or publicly disparage the stocks they short. To assess unique effects of the negative publicity on targeted stock prices, he compares performances of targeted… Keep Reading

Does a model based on factors extracted from investable exchange-traded funds (ETF) work as well in evaluating fund alphas as models based on factors from more conceptional portfolios? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Bringing Order to Chaos: Capturing Relevant Information with Hedge Fund Factor Models”, Yongjia Li and Alexey Malakhov examine a hedge fund performance evaluation model that identifies risk… Keep Reading

Are economic globalization and market financialization extinguishing diversification? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide: Asset Diversification in a Flat World”, John Cotter, Stuart Gabriel and Richard Roll examine diversification within and across equity, government debt and real estate investment trust (REIT) indexes worldwide (a total of 40 indexes spanning 23 countries). They… Keep Reading

Do stocks entering (exiting) factor indexes experience a price jump (drop) due to increased (decreased) demand? In their October 2016 paper entitled “Price Response to Factor Index Decompositions”, Joop Huij and Georgi Kyosev examine price impacts for stocks entering and exiting MSCI Minimum Volatility factor indexes covering U.S., European, global and emerging markets. To isolate the factor index effect,… Keep Reading

Do the realities of trading (bids and asks, stale prices, large orders, noise traders and technical traders) that may drive asset price away from fundamental value affect some stocks more than others? If so, is the effect exploitable? In their October 2016 draft paper entitled “(Priced) Frictions”, Kewei Hou, Sehoon Kim and Ingrid Werner assess the impact of… Keep Reading