Investing Research Articles

As suggested by a reader, we expand here an evaluation of overall stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Carl Futia, available since April 2005. The main tools that Carl Futia uses to analyze financial markets are the theory of contrary opinion, his box theory and the work of George Lindsay on ‘repeating time intervals’…. Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary in the “Contrarian Chronicles” at MSN Money since August 2002 (the earliest we can find). Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P… Keep Reading

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to… Keep Reading

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit anomalously high returns during option expiration weeks for large capitalization stocks with high ratios of option trading volume to stock trading volume.

…realistic assumptions about business cycle predictability make it unlikely that an investor can outperform the broad stock market using a conventional sector rotation strategy. A more focused, unconventional sector rotation strategy might outperform.

…publicly available information does not support an assessment of Puru Saxena’s investing performance.

Do credit conditions systematically affect stock market behavior? In the March 2010 draft of their paper entitled “Credit Conditions and Expected Stock Returns”, Sudheer Chava, Michael Gallmeyer and Heungju Park investigate whether changes in bank lending standards (net percentage of banks reporting tighter standards for commercial and industrial loans in Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Senior… Keep Reading

…demographic projections suggest a reasonably stable long run real U.S. stock market return over the next 40 years.

…evidence indicates that a trader who periodically switches to the hottest known anomaly based on a rolling window of past performance may be able to beat the market. Anomalies appear to have their own kind of momentum.

The quality of working papers from academia is as high as, or higher than, that of many analyses available to investors from investment industry sources and from other investors.