Strategic Allocation

Does adding a proxy for the currency carry trade among developed economies (long futures on three currencies with the highest interest rates and short futures on three currencies with the lowest interest rates) to a diversified portfolio improve its performance? To check, we add PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for DBV and the average pairwise correlation of DBV monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without DBV. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for DBV and the above nine asset class proxies from September 2006 (first return available for DBV) through April 2013 (79 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested testing the diversification power of SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bonds (BWX) as a distinct asset class. To check, we add BWX to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for BWX and the average pairwise correlation of BWX monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without BWX. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for BWX and the above nine asset class proxies from November 2007 (first return available for BWX) through April 2013 (66 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

It is plausible that high-yield corporate bonds have return characteristics substantially different from those of other asset classes, and therefore represent a good diversification opprotunity. To check, we add iShares iBoxx $ High-Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for HYG and the average pairwise correlation of HYG monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without HYG. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for HYG and the above nine asset class proxies from May 2007 (first return available for HYG) through April 2013 (72 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), offering an explicit inflation hedge, may be an attractive asset for strategic diversification. To check, we add iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for TIP and the average pairwise correlation of TIP monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without TIP. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for TIP and the above nine asset class proxies as available from January 2004 (first available for TIP) through April 2013 (112 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

It is plausible that crude oil as a dominant energy commodity has return characteristics substantially different from those of other commodities and asset classes, and therefore represent a good diversification opprotunity. To check, we add iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for IEF and the average pairwise correlation of IEF monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without IEF. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for IEF and the above nine asset class proxies as available from January 2003 (the start of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Strategy”) through April 2013 (124 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested testing the diversification power of exchange-traded aggregations of U.S. pipeline Master Limited Partnerships, such as JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ), as a distinct asset class. To check, we add AMJ to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for AMJ and the average pairwise correlation of AMJ monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without AMJ. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for AMJ and the above nine asset class proxies from July 2009 (first return available for AMJ) through April 2013 (only 46 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

It is plausible that crude oil as a dominant energy commodity has return characteristics substantially different from those of other commodities and asset classes, and therefore represents a good diversification opportunity. To check, we add the United States Oil Fund (USO) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for USO and the average pairwise correlation of USO monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without USO. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for USO and the above nine asset class proxies as available from May 2006 (first return available for USO) through April 2013 (84 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested testing the diversification power of iPath DJ-UBS Copper ETN (JJC) as a distinct asset class. To check, we add JJC to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for JJC and the average pairwise correlation of JJC monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without JJC. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for JJC and the above nine asset class proxies from November 2007 (first return available for JJC) through April 2013 (66 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

Does adding a proxy for the least developed (frontier) equity markets to a diversified portfolio improve its performance? To check, we add Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (FRN) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for FRN and the average pairwise correlation of FRN monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without FRN. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for FRN and the above nine asset class proxies from July 2008 (first return available for FRN) through April 2013 (58 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading

Market volatility tends to rise as returns fall. Does adding a proxy for intermediate-term U.S. equity market volatility to a diversified portfolio improve its performance? To check, we add iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures (VXZ) to the following mix of asset class proxies (the same used in “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy”):

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

First, per the findings of “Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors”, we measure the average monthly return for VXZ and the average pairwise correlation of VXZ monthly returns with the monthly returns of the above assets. Then, we compare cumulative returns and basic monthly return statistics for equally weighted (EW), monthly rebalanced portfolios with and without VXZ. We ignore rebalancing frictions, which would be about the same for the alternative portfolios. Using adjusted monthly returns for VXZ and the above nine asset class proxies from March 2009 (first return available for VXZ) through April 2013 (only 50 monthly returns), we find that: Keep Reading