Investing Research Articles

What does a passive U.S. equity investor keep after paying federal taxes? In the May 2026 version of his paper entitled “Uncle Sam’s Cut: A Century of the Federal Tax Drag on US Equity Returns”,...

The conventional Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE), or P/E10, divides current real S&P 500 Index level by average annual aggregate real index earnings as reported over the prior 10 years. Is there a more useful...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for July 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS...

Are stock market dips reliable indications of valuation distortions that reliably revert, thereby offering buying opportunities? In his May 2026 paper entitled “Buy the Dip? Not So Fast”, Javier Estrada considers two ways to evaluate...

Do U.S. industry portfolios perform predictably after similar U.S. equity market returns? In his May 2026 paper entitled “Industry Rotation Using Market-State Similarity”,  Valeriy Zakamulin studies whether current market returns exploitably predict subsequent industry returns....

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/22/26 through 6/26/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber commented and asked: “I have been wondering whether Morningstar’s estimate of ‘fair value’ for stocks has any relationship to actual subsequent returns. For instance, when the fair value is more than double the...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as retirement portfolio specification advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Is the Buffett Indicator, the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization (proxied by Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index W5000) to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a useful indicator of future U.S. stock market performance? W5000/GDP...

The middle of the year might be a time for funds to dress their windows and investors to review and revise portfolios. The 4th of July celebration might engender optimism among U.S. investors. Are there...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as safe haven selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/15/26 through 6/18/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Is the shift from keyword-based search engines to artificial intelligence (AI) as implemented with large language models (LLM) affecting typical investor behavior? In the May 2026 revision of their paper entitled “The Double-Edged Mind: How...

Does inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI)-generated summaries in financial news articles influence investor response to the articles? In the May 2026 revision of their paper entitled “Generative AI and Investor Processing of Financial Media”, Tony...

Do funds based on holdings/trades of members of the U.S. Congress and their families beat the market? To investigate, we look at performances of two recently introduced exchange-traded funds (ETF): Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading...

The quarterly CFO Survey asks chief financial officers, owner-operators, vice presidents and directors of finance, accountants, controllers, treasurers and others with financial decision-making roles in small to very large companies across all major industries to...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/8/26 through 6/12/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Can investors extract an edge from prediction markets such as Kalshi, the first (2021) Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange that trades on outcomes of future events including consumer price index (CPI), federal funds rate...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as niche selection investment advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (slightly higher than) forecasted.

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as equity factor selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Are low volatility stock strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest low volatility ETFs, all currently available, in order of longest to shortest available histories: Invesco S&P...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as asset class allocation advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/1/26 through 6/5/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...