Investing Research Articles

A buffer exchange-traded fund (ETF) is designed to limit losses while capping gains over a specific period, usually one year, generally by combining a position in put and call options on a stock index with...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/16/26 through 3/20/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber asked about an assertion that bitcoin (BTC) price trend/return predicts return of the S&P 500 Index (SP500). To investigate, we relate BTC returns to SP500 returns at daily, weekly and monthly frequencies. We...

A subscriber asked whether more granularity in international equity choices for the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) would improve performance. To investigate, we augment/replace international developed and emerging equity market exchange-traded funds (ETF) such that...

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) designed to make private equity accessible to individual investors beat the market? To investigate, we consider four ETFs, as follows: Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP) – invests in 40...

The Trading Calendar has links to charts of average month-to-date return for the S&P 500 Index (SP500) by trading day during each month of the year. How do these cumulative return profiles compare? To illustrate,...

Are plans to use nuclear power to provide electricity for proliferating data centers driving attractive performance for uranium exchange-traded-funds (ETF)? To investigate, we consider four such ETFs, all currently available: VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/9/26 through 3/13/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Which is more important, knowing what direction to trade or knowing when to enter a trade? In his February 2026 paper entitled “Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information”, Joshua Della Vedova decomposes prediction...

Are there cryptocurrencies that are so alike that they generally track each other and reliably revert whenever they diverge? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Pairs Trading in Crypto”, Sasha Stoikov, Dora Xu, Shijie Shao,...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a slightly lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on data centers, an arguably hot theme, perform? To investigate, we consider four such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF (IDGT) Pacer...

“Beat the Market with Hot-Anomaly Switching?” concludes that “a trader who periodically switches to the hottest known anomaly based on a rolling window of past performance may be able to beat the market. Anomalies appear...

“Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” investigates performances of simple momentum strategies for the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) executed with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR): Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Energy Select Sector...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/2/26 through 3/6/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber requested a test of Ray Dalio‘s All Weather (AW) portfolio with different rebalancing frequencies, allocated to exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies as follows: 30% – Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 40%...

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios...

How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with inflation as measured by monthly change in the not seasonally adjusted, all-commodities producer price index (PPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? To investigate,...

A subscriber requested review of the Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio, which assigns equal weights to the total stock market, small-capitalization value stocks, long-term government bonds, short-term government bonds and gold. To investigate, we use the...

“Big 10 Effect?” looks at recent performance of a portfolio that annually picks the 10 NASDAQ stocks with the largest market capitalizations. One reason these firms get big is high past returns. Does a simple...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/23/26 through 2/27/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for March 2026. SACEMS rankings for positions 2 and 3 are somewhat close,...

How have different asset classes recently interacted with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)? To investigate, we look at lead-lag relationships between VIX and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies:...

What does very long term experience say about the best way to protect a conventional global 60% equities-40% bonds (60/40) portfolio against drawdowns? In their November 2025 paper entitled “The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries...